Brewers vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Burnes, Walker Dominate in Pitcher's Duel

The Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies will play the rubber game of their three-game series when the two postseason hopefuls face off at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday afternoon.

The Phillies (52-43) took the first game of the series by a 4-3 score before the Brewers (53-43) got some revenge on Tuesday with a 5-3 victory.

The first two games of this series were both close, hard-fought contests. With Corbin Burnes and Taijuan Walker on the mound this afternoon, we can expect more of the same in the finale.

Find out what this means for bettors in our free MLB betting picks for Brewers vs. Phillies below.

Brewers vs Phillies odds

Brewers vs Phillies predictions

Good teams typically have solid pitching at the top of their rotations, and these two teams are no exception. 

Corbin Burnes has been the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers staff for three years now, all of which have been All-Star campaigns. While Burnes isn’t quite replicating his Cy Young performance from 2021 or even his 2022 campaign that saw him lead the NL in strikeouts, he remains highly effective for a Milwaukee team that leads the NL Central. 

Taijuan Walker takes on less responsibility for the Philadelphia Phillies, as he gets to pitch behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler., but he's slotted in well for Philadelphia, putting up an 11-3 record so far on the year.

Walker has a 4.00 ERA, but that fails to reflect his recent success. In his last five starts, Walker has held opponents to two or fewer runs four times, is averaging well over six innings per outing, and has picked up the win in all five games.

A matchup between Burnes and Walker is a good start for a low-scoring game on Wednesday. A quick look at the offenses for both teams gives us another reason to expect a pitching duel. Both lineups produce a below-average number of runs, with the Brewers (4.17 runs per game) being particularly tepid. 

That hasn’t stopped Milwaukee from winning games. The Brewers have won five of their six, all while averaging just 2.83 runs per game during that span. It’s just that they rely heavily on their pitching to get there, as they did in Burnes’ last start, a 1-0 win over the Cincinnati Reds.

The Phillies are a bit more capable on the offensive end, especially as Bryce Harper rounds back into form, but their lineup has struggled against quality pitchers like Burnes.

All these factors suggest that Wednesday will mirror the first two games in this series, with the Phillies and Brewers engaging in a tight, low-scoring contest where pitching has the upper hand. Despite this, sportsbooks tried to set the total at a robust nine runs, and most books are still on 8.5 for the Over/Under. 

That’s a bit too much for these teams and these starting pitchers. I’m betting the Under, and getting a great price to do so.

My best bet: Under 8.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

Brewers vs Phillies same-game parlay

Under 8.5 (-104)

First-inning Under 0.5 (-102)

Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 strikeouts (-110)

+373 at FanDuel

I’m expecting both starting pitchers to provide their teams with strong performances on Wednesday, and that’s the basis of my same-game parlay for this game. We’ll start by carrying over my best bet, taking the Under at 8.5 runs.

Since I expect Walker and Burnes to do well today, I’m going to pick them to handle their business out of the gate. That means predicting that there will be no runs scored in the first inning, something that both seems highly likely and correlates well with our overall Under bet.

Finally, let’s take Burnes to record at least seven strikeouts this afternoon. Burnes is coming off a 13-strikeout performance in his last outing, and will now face a Philadelphia lineup that is vulnerable to the strikeout. The Brewers ace should be able to get over his 6.5 strikeout prop, so the Over here is the perfect way to round out our SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Brewers vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Phillies opened today’s game as a -120 favorite. That number has largely remained consistent, with most books sticking with the -120 number, though you can find Philadelphia -115 at some books. The Brewers are available at +105 if you’d like to bet on the visitors today.

The Brewers have overperformed for bettors this year, winning a little over eight bets on the moneyline in 2023. Meanwhile, the Phillies are treading water for gamblers, as they are up only about a half-unit for the season.

Given the pitching matchup, this game feels very close to a tossup. Despite his numbers on the season, I think Burnes is definitely the better starter here, and that is pushing me slightly towards Milwaukee, as I still expect him to find his form as we approach the end of the season. 

The Over/Under opened at 9 this afternoon, though that number has been bet down to 8.5 at most books. Almost every site is putting juice on the Over at that number, while the books that have remained at a flat 9 are instead offering longer odds on the Under. 

Both teams have played to the Under all season long. The Under is 51-41 in Milwaukee’s games, while it also has a 48-38 mark when the Phillies play.

I expect that trend to continue on Wednesday. These are not high-scoring teams, and both are giving the ball to strong starting pitchers for the rubber game of this matchup.

The first two games were tight and low-scoring, and both teams will want to win this afternoon as they fight to remain in playoff position. I’m betting the Under here.

Trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in Milwaukee’s last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies

Brewers vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Corbin Burnes (8-5, 3.73 ERA): Milwaukee was high on Burnes ever since his excellent rookie campaign in 2018, and he fully reached his promise in 2021, winning the NL Cy Young. While he has yet to repeat that season, Burnes remains a strong option at the top of the Brewers rotation, pitching to a 1.112 WHIP this season even as his strikeout numbers have declined. Last time out, Burnes gave up just two hits while striking out 13 in six shutout innings against the Reds.

Taijuan Walker (11-3, 4.00 ERA): Now in his 11th season, the veteran Walker leads the majors with 11 wins on the season. He hasn’t been as good as that number suggests, but Walker continues to be a reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter, the same kind of pitcher he's been throughout the majority of his career. Walker last threw on July 15, when he gave up two runs on four hits over five innings against the Padres.

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