Brewers vs Pirates Predictions, Picks, Odds: Peralta Puts Pirates Through Their Paces

The Pittsburgh Pirates will welcome the division-rival Milwaukee Brewers to town for a pivotal three-game set on Friday night. MLB odds have the Brewers as -140 moneyline favorites for the opener, with a total of 8.5.

The NL Central is up for grabs as we've nearly reached the All-Star break, as five games separate the fourth place team from first. The Pirates will arrive in this series fresh off a sweep of the San Diego Padres. As for the Brewers, they were impressive in a series against the New York Mets and took three of four games. Each of these teams is a legitimate contender for the Central crown at the present moment, which makes for an intriguing series.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Pirates on Friday, June 30.

Brewers vs Pirates odds

Brewers vs Pirates predictions

An excellent place to start this handicap is looking at some "no-rest" trends.

Each of these teams has been playing a decent streak of baseball lately. This will be the fourth straight game with no rest for the Brewers, and it's the same story for the Pirates. With that in mind, seeing the splits for Pittsburgh with no rest is illuminating. It's also an excellent start to make the Brewers moneyline my best bet tonight.

The Pirates have won just 44% of their games off of no rest this season. That's one of the worst rates in the league. The Brewers aren't significantly better in this metric, but they are above league average with wins in 53% of its "no rest" games. With two teams that have a slight separation between them from a talent perspective, this is notable.

It's also a bit of conjecture, but it's worth noting what conditions the Pirates played in yesterday. A good portion of its team's players were outspoken about not wanting to play in the poor air quality conditions, and after a 45-minute delay, the decision was made to play still. Is there a negative carryover there? 

Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee today, and though this season is trending to be one of the worst of his career, I'm hopeful there are improvements in the waiting. In today's matchup, though, even his current form should bring him some success against this Pirates lineup. With Brian Reynolds remaining injured, the Pirates will send out a lineup today with just one player with a positive run value against the slider. That's a big deal because that's a pitch that Peralta has thrown more often lately and with more success. Look for him to lean on that today. 

I don't have much to say with tons of conviction about Osvaldo Bido, who will take the mound for the Pirates today. However, we know he gives up contact and is coming off a game where he allowed nine hits against the Miami Marlins. Milwaukee isn't the most impressive offensive team in the league, but they should have enough success here. Like their opponent, they'll also see a good amount of off-speed pitches, which make up over 50% of Bido's arsenal. The Brewers are about 5% to 10% better in various hitting metrics against off-speed pitchers. 

I projected this number at -140, and that's about the number that oddsmakers have given us. With my handicap in mind, I'll back the Brewers to get the job done today. 

My best bet: Brewers moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)

Brewers vs Pirates same-game parlay

Brewers moneyline

Peralta Under 2.5 earned runs

Peralta Over 17.5 outs

+195 at bet365

While running this significantly correlated same-game parlay doesn't yield the best return, it's still one of my favorite ways to attack here. I've spoken extensively about why I expect the Brewers to get it done today, and the rest is directly tied to that belief.

With both teams amid an extensive run of games, I'm expecting this to be a low-scoring contest. Peralta has tons of prior success against this Pirates lineup because of how effective his off-speed pitches are. Because of that, I don't expect the Brewers to exceed two earned runs against him.

That directly ties into the last leg of Peralta Over 17.5 outs. Peralta's walk rate has given him trouble this season because he doesn't get much chase on his pitches. That's less of a problem against a Pittsburgh team which has swung more frequently over the last two weeks. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Brewers vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis

You know how I feel about the Brewers' moneyline today. It's not precisely that I see significant value in the number, but it's the best bet. That's because of how much success I see Peralta having today, and the aforementioned situational stats that favor the Brewers. Simply put, it's too much to ignore. That holds even more true when you look at some of the trends. 

The Brewers have won four straight against right-handed starters. In addition to that, they have won each of their last four on the road against a right-handed starter. Lastly, they have historically solid dominance against the Pirates as winners of 47 of the previous 68 meetings. Again, there's too much to ignore here.

I'll take a stab at the Under at 8.5, available at -110, for a unit. It was nearly my best bet, but the Milwaukee moneyline slightly edged it. 

We've talked enough about what I expect to see from Peralta today, so let's talk about the other perspective.

We don't have excessive data to go on with Bido. Clarifying that distinction is essential because of his newness to the league. What seems clear is that he'll be about the pitch-to-contact type of hurler, and that's something other than what the Brewers have tons of success against.

While I fully expect the Brewers to do enough today to get the job done — especially against the Pirates' 29th-ranked bullpen by ERA this month (5.79) — it must be noted that their offensive struggles are real. They rank near the bottom of the league in BABIP and are similar in standard batting average.

It's tough to envision them having much of an offensive outburst today, which is why their last four games have all gone Under. 

Trend to know

The Brewers are 4-0 in their last four games against a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Pirates

Brewers vs Pirates game info

Starting pitchers

Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.65 ERA): There's been a falloff for Peralta this season, and it's surprising to me. A career 1.16 WHIP player who routinely has one of the best expected ERAs in the league has seen a plummet in his numbers. Most notably, his expected ERA has gone from back-to-back years with a sub-3.00 number to being over 4.00 this season. The excellent news for Peralta is that the issue is obvious. He needs to find fewer barrels. Peralta has gone from a barrel rate that sat in the Top 10% of baseball a season ago to one that now sits in the Bottom 15%. I'm still determining if it's as simple as fixing that issue, but I know it will go a long way to improving his effectiveness on a game-to-game basis. 

Osvaldo Bido (0-1, 3.45 ERA): With just three career starts to his name; it's tough to make many sweeping conclusions on Bibo. What we do know is he's going to give up hits. He's averaged 1.2 hits against per inning this season, and comes off a game against the Miami Marlins in which he allowed nine hits in just over five innings of work. We also know that most of his hits are of the line drive variety – at least higher when compared to the rest of the league. Bido has allowed a 32% line-drive rate which is significantly higher than the 25% league average. We don't know much about Bido just yet, but we do know that he doesn't miss many bats. Whether he can manage that or if it becomes a real problem remains to be seen.

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