Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler looks to continue his strong season as he toes the rubber opposite Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Frankie Montas.
My Phillies vs. Brewers prediction is bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, September 17.
Phillies vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Phillies -1.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Frankie Montas is 7-10 through 27 starts this season with a 4.49 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Ace Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia. He outranks Montas in all the aforementioned categories and has been one of the front-runners for the NL Cy Young for much of the season.
Entering this matchup in particularly dominant form, Wheeler has surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his past eight starts, going 5-1 over that stretch with a 1.76 ERA.
Not only do the Phillies possess the pitching advantage, but they are also the superior team at the dish, outranking the Brewers in hits per game, batting average, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
Phillies vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies -1.5
Frankie Montas Under 5.5 strikeouts
Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 hits
Montas also ranks in the bottom half of the league in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates. Philadelphia also ranks in the top half of the league in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
If we're backing the Phillies to win by multiple runs while simultaneously fading Montas, a highly correlated outcome would be for some hits to follow. Enter Brandon Marsh, who boasts a .298 xBA through 12 career plate appearances against Montas.
Marsh has been a monster over the past month, recording 23 hits over his past 21 games while carrying a .338 average.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Brewers odds
Phillies vs Brewers live odds
Phillies vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -150 | Milwaukee +125
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+115) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Phillies vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a -148 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I project this line to widen, due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 7.5 and has since been bet down to seven.
- This line movement surprises me due to the strong lineups, but it speaks volumes to just how dominant Wheeler has been.
Phillies vs Brewers trend
Philadelphia has won by two or more runs in seven of Wheeler’s past 12 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Brewers.
Phillies vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (15-6, 2.60 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Frankie Montas (7-10, 4.49 ERA) |
Phillies vs Brewers latest injuries
Phillies vs Brewers weather
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