It’s a Friday afternoon game at Wrigley Field as the St. Louis Cardinals come to town to take on the Chicago Cubs as a +110 road dog in the MLB odds. St. Louis will send Jack Flaherty to the mound to oppose lefty Justin Steele, who hasn’t looked great over his last two starts.
With the Cards riding a six-game winning streak and Steele possibly hitting a wall in a high-volume season, is Friday afternoon a good point to stack some plays in favor of another St. Louis victory?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Cubs for Friday, July 21.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Cardinals vs Cubs predictions
Justin Steele has been a Top-20 pitcher this season, but that pace is hard to keep up for a young player, and bettors are starting to see some issues with the lefty of late.
Steele is coming off a terrible start vs. Boston where he allowed six runs on 82 pitches in what was his first start since the All-Star break. He’s also allowed 19 hits over his last two turns (12 innings), which is the most in any two-game stretch this season for him.
He pitched 119 innings last year, which was a career-high, and enters this afternoon’s contest at 97 1/3. I’m not saying he is slowing down, but this was already a hurler pitching above all his projections, and regression is looming.
His Under 17.5 market is falling, but there are still a couple of Under 17.5s at +125 and some +120s available this morning. The Cardinals are not the best offense in the league, but this will be the third time Steele has seen them, which is always an advantage to the hitters when it comes to familiarity.
This is also a pitcher with a rather short leash and has hit 95 pitches or more in just four of his 17 starts. THE BAT is projecting 17.4 outs but on 96 pitches. If he sees something in the 85-90 area in terms of a pitch count, that out projection falls to 16.5, which gives plenty of value to the Under 17.5 at +125.
My best bet: Justin Steele Under 17.5 outs (+125)
Cardinals vs Cubs same-game parlay
Steele Under 17.5 outs
Flaherty Over 17.5 outs
Over 7.5
I'm getting nearly true odds on this three-leg SGP, as the Over 7.5 is giving a much better multiplier than the Cardinals moneyline.
This game could easily see some runs, and the leash on Jack Flaherty could be longer than normal with up to four St. Louis relief pitchers possibly unavailable. Three earned runs and 18 outs are certainly on the table.
Steele has not looked sharp over his last two starts (before and after the break). St. Louis has seen him twice already this season, and the Cards have a much better offense on paper. Steele's approaching a career-high in innings pitched and his pitch count could be scaled back with the Cubs having nothing to play for and getting ready to be sellers at the end of the month.
I'm expecting some late runs in this game and like St. Louis to win, meaning Chicago will hopefully get their last at-bat in the ninth.
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Cardinals vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cards enter today riding a six-game winning streak in what is the third series between the two rivals this season. St. Louis has taken four of six — winning all four as an underdog.
Steven Matz shut down this Chicago offense last night, and now the Cubbies have to face one of the better arms in this rotation in Jack Flaherty, who St. Louis is 9-2 SU behind in his last 11 starts. That includes four straight winning decisions from the right-handed starter.
The Cardinals hit as high as +110 on the moneyline today before getting bet back down to +100, which is still a price I’d take them this afternoon. St. Louis has the better offense, as the loss of Dansby Swanson hurts Chicago. To make matters worse, Nick Madrigal is now on the shelf.
The Cards usually have the edge in relief pitching but might have four unavailable arms. This could lead to a longer leash for Flaherty but also gives an edge to the Cards on the first five moneyline which is higher than the full-game one. That is likely because of the usual edge St. Louis has in the pen.
Flaherty is a pitcher who keeps the ball in the park but struggles with command. Having a pitcher-friendly umpire in Ron Kulpa helps mitigate some of the walk issues.
I’d take the better price on the full-game Cards moneyline or the first five moneyline with a lean on the latter at similar prices.
The Over is intriguing today as well. Flaherty’s walk issues favor the Over, but Steele has given up a lot of hits over his last two starts and a regression could be coming for him.
Chicago also has a brutal bullpen, and the tired relief arms in St. Louis could also favor the Over 8. Many books have gone from 8 to 8.5, but bet365 is still hanging an 8 at the time of writing.
There is a lot I like in this game, including the Cards to not lose after five innings at +105 or better, the Cardinals full-game moneyline at +100 or better, and the Over 8 at -120 or better.
It’s a Friday afternoon game at Wrigley with a full card!
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Trend to know
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in eight of their last nine games (+6.20 Units / 49% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs
Cardinals vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, July 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Jack Flaherty (7-5, 4.29 ERA): Flaherty has been the most consistent pitcher on this Cardinals roster but has allowed 15 runs over his last 29 innings with a .301 BA and a .808 OPS. His command is always an issue with a 96/51 K/BB rate over 98-plus innings, but he keeps the ball in the park with just seven home runs allowed. His xERA and xFIP are both higher than his actuals, yet his .343 BABIP is quite high. The Cards are 12-6 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 103 pitches, 17.7 outs, 6.28 strikeouts, and 2.8 earned runs.
Justin Steele (9-3, 2.96 ERA): With Marcus Stroman stumbling of late, Steele might be the best pitcher on this staff right now, but he hasn't been great of late. He’s currently the No. 7 betting favorite for the NL Cy Young odds at bet365 and comes into today with an 87/20 K/BB rate over 97-plus innings with just six home runs allowed. He has allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts, which is worrisome, and the Cubs are 10-7 SU when he starts. THE BAT is projecting 96 pitches, 17.4 outs, 5.11 strikeouts, and 2.48 earned runs.
