The St. Louis Cardinals will look to get back to their winning ways on Saturday afternoon as they take on the Chicago Cubs in the third game of a four-game series at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs (46-51) evened the series at one game each on Friday, as a Cody Bellinger homer lifted Chicago to a 4-3 victory. That ended a six-game winning streak for the Cardinals (44-54), who remain mired in fourth place in the NL Central.
Both teams need to start winning in a hurry if they want to make any noise in the postseason race. Unfortunately for Chicago, it’s not putting itself in the best position to win this afternoon, at least when it comes to its pitching staff. We’ll take a closer look at the matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Cubs on July 22.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Cardinals vs Cubs predictions
When the Cubs signed Michael Fulmer in the offseason, they saw a reliever that they could turn into a potential closer. That hasn’t quite panned out, as Fulmer is having one of the worst seasons of his career so far in 2023. He’s still a potential trade target at the deadline — the Boston Red Sox are rumored to be interested in picking him up — but his 4.43 ERA and 4.4 walks per nine innings aren’t the most attractive numbers out there.
Once upon a time, Fulmer was a starter with the Detroit Tigers, winning Rookie of the Year in 2016 and making an All-Star Game in 2017. After struggling for a couple seasons, however, he made the move to the bullpen, where he has pitched almost exclusively since 2021.
The Cubs aren’t trying to turn Fulmer back into a starter on Saturday. Instead, they plan to use the 30-year-old as an opener, part of what might become a bullpen game for Chicago. In fact, it’s unclear what the Cubs are planning to do after Fulmer exits the game, as they didn’t even name a probable starter for Saturday’s contest, and only decided that Fulmer would get the ball late last night.
There’s a problem with that if you’re looking for Chicago to win this game. It would be one thing if Fulmer was tasked with opening the game when he was fresh. It’s another entirely when he’s coming off pitching in the eighth inning of last night’s game. Fulmer threw 15 pitches to three batters on Friday, and in what has become all too typical for him this season, he walked two of them.
In all likelihood, Fulmer will only throw one inning today. But in an unfamiliar role and having pitched in yesterday’s game as well, he’s not set up for success. The Cardinals are likely to jump on him early, especially if he can’t find his control out of the gate.
On the other hand, St. Louis will enjoy some stability from their starting pitcher. Miles Mikolas may be putting up average numbers, but he’s once again proving to be a reliable source of innings. He has taken the mound to start a game a league-leading 21 times, throwing 121.2 innings in the process.
By using Fulmer as an opener today, the Cubs are showing that this game isn’t a priority, particularly against the streaking Cardinals. That’s more than enough for me to back St. Louis on the moneyline this afternoon, as they should be able to handle whatever Chicago attempts to do on the mound during and after Fulmer’s stint.
My best bet: Cardinals moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)
Cardinals vs Cubs same-game parlay
Cardinals ML
Under 10.5 runs
Mikolas 5+ strikeouts
For my same-game parlay, we’ll be building a bet around the Cardinals moneyline pick I made above. The pitching matchup suggests that St. Louis should be a significant favorite, so getting them at just -120 is a great start to an SGP as well as my best bet of the game.
We’ll combine that with the Under at an alternate total of 10.5 runs. We don’t have to give up very much by buying the extra run, and while I don’t trust Fulmer, I do think Mikolas should have a long and solid start based on his recent outings. That should be enough to keep the scoring within reason today.
Finally, since Mikolas should stay on the mound for a while, I’m throwing in a bet on the Cardinals starter to record at least five strikeouts. While Mikolas isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, the Cubs swing and miss a lot, ranking sixth in the majors in strikeouts this year. Combined with Mikolas’ tendency to go long in his starts, five punchouts seems like an achievable target for the veteran.
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Cardinals vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Because of the uncertainty around Chicago’s starting pitching situation, many books were late to get lines up for this afternoon’s game. As of Saturday morning, the Cardinals are a -120 favorite at most sites, while you can get odds of +102 on the Cubs by shopping around.
Both teams have disappointed this year, which has led to losses on the moneyline. The Cubs are down more than 5.5 units on the year, but the real shocker has been the Cardinals, who have cost bettors over 22 units as they have been unable to sustain their usual level of play in 2023.
Despite that performance this season, I’m backing the Cardinals to get the win on Saturday. I just can’t ignore the fact that Fulmer isn’t a serious pick to start today’s game, and that the Cubs don’t seem to have a clear plan behind him, either. With the Cardinals coming off a long winning streak before yesterday’s loss, St. Louis being the better team, and Chicago not putting out the best team possible on Saturday, the Cardinals are the clear pick.
At the moment, the Over/Under sits at 9.5 runs at most sites. Books are treating that number as even on both sides, and you can get -110 no matter which side you’re looking to take.
These teams have each found more success on the offensive side this year. As a result, the Over is 50-44 in Cubs games, while also going 48-46 when the Cardinals play in 2023.
This number appears to be right on the mark. Mikolas has pitched well lately and could hold the Cubs down, but the bullpen game is dangerous for Chicago. At the same time, that’s no guarantee of a slugfest, as the rotating cast of relievers can often throw off opposing lineups, at least until one or two arms fail to hold up their end of the bargain. While these are two capable offensive teams, 9.5 is a fairly high number, and I’m inclined to stay away from this market today.
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Trend to know
The Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs
Cardinals vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, July 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSN, MSN |
Starting pitchers
Miles Mikolas (6-5, 4.14 ERA): The 34-year-old Mikolas leads the majors in starts, and is among the MLB leaders in innings pitched at 121.2. That’s been enough to maintain his position at the top of the Cardinals rotation, even if Jordan Montgomery has clearly been their best starter this year. In his last start, Mikolas gave up three runs on seven hits over six innings against the Miami Marlins, the first time he had allowed runs after two straight scoreless outings.
Michael Fulmer (1-5, 4.46 ERA): Used exclusively as a starter during the first two years of his career, Fulmer will be making his first start since 2021 when he acts as an opener for the Cubs on Saturday. Fulmer threw 15 pitches in Friday’s game, meaning he’s unlikely to make it past one inning this afternoon. On Friday, Fulmer walked two batters before recording a strikeout in a short eighth-inning stint that earned him a hold.
