Cardinals vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Is a Win in the Cards?

Two struggling NL Central sides look to right the ship as St. Louis visits Chicago in MLB betting action. Find out if Kyle Hendricks can deliver a strong outing as we break down our Cardinals vs. Cubs picks.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Jul 9, 2021 • 10:05 ET • 4 min read
Kyle Hendricks MLB Chicago Cubs
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The MLB betting board for Friday has 15 games on tap, beginning with an afternoon duel between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs.

These NL Central rivals come into this weekend series with identical 43-45 records, but it's the Cubs who are expected to come out on top in the first game, with oddsmakers installing them as -155 home favorites at Wrigley Field.

Here are our best free Cardinals vs. Cubs picks and predictions for Friday, July 9, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. 

Cardinals vs Cubs game info

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Friday, July 9, 2021
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN 

Cardinals vs Cubs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

As of 12:30 p.m. ET today, less than two hours before first pitch, the Cubs are down to -155 favorites at DrafKings, after opening -175 Thursday night. Chicago is taking a modest majority of moneyline tickets, at 53 percent, and is seeing 62 percent of moneyline cash. The total bounced around quite a bit, from 8.5 to 9 to 8 to 8.5, and it's now 8 flat (-110), though the Over is still seeing a sizable majority of tickets and money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Cardinals vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Wade LeBlanc (0-0, 2.16 ERA): The veteran left-hander joined the team in mid-June and has thrown well as both a reliever and starter, allowing four earned runs in 16 2-3 innings with the Cards.

His last start came last Saturday on the road in Colorado and he looked great, allowing three hits and zero runs in 5 2-3 innings of work. 

Kyle Hendricks (10-4 3.83 ERA): Hendricks has been up-and-down this season and is currently posting the worst WHIP (1.25) and opponent batting average (.266) numbers of his eight-year career.

The right-hander is coming off a strong performance on the road against the Reds where he allowed five hits and one run through six innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cardinals: None.
Cubs: Kris Bryant 3B (Questionable), Javier Baez SS (Questionable), David Bote 3B (Out), Matt Duffy 3B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these division rivals. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.

Moneyline pick

It's hard to imagine that both of these clubs looked like playoff teams at the beginning of June considering how badly they have played lately. The Cardinals were 31-24 on June 1 but have since gone 12-21, while the Cubs were 11 games above .500 on June 13 but have lost 18 of their last 23 games. 

The Cubs will send right-hander Kyle Hendricks to the mound this afternoon. While his 3.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this season don't jump off the page, he has a strong track record against the Cardinals, going 11-3 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 22 career starts versus St. Louis. 

Hendricks should be able to handle a struggling Cardinals lineup that ranks 25th in the majors with an OPS of .677, with that number dropping to .632 over the last four weeks. 

The Cards will give the ball to southpaw Wade Leblanc. The 36-year-old has looked sharp in his last two outings but has logged just 70 2-3 innings as a starter since the start of the 2019 season, pitching to a 7.51 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in those games. 

The Cubs haven't been hitting the ball well either but they do tend to make better contact at home, where they have a solid OPS of .742.

The Cubbies have also had the edge in this rivalry recently, going 6-1 in the last seven games in the head-to-head, including 4-0 in the previous four meetings at Wrigley Field. With the Cubs going 8-2 in Hendricks' last 10 starts, take them on the moneyline. 

PREDICTION: ML Cubs (-155)

Over/Under pick

We mentioned that Hendricks has a strong resume against the Cardinals, and he also has great career numbers at Wrigley Field where he has pitched to a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 95 career starts. While he has been a bit inconsistent this season, he has pitched well recently, allowing just five runs in his last 27 innings pitched. 

The Cubs bullpen has also been outstanding, with their relievers pitching to an MLB-best .198 OBA while ranking third with a 3.31 ERA. 

When it comes to hitting, both of these clubs have been absolutely brutal at the plate lately. Over the last four weeks, the Cardinals are scoring just 3.23 runs per game, while the Cubs are averaging 3.27. 

The Under is 8-3-2 in the Cardinals' last 13 games while also going 25-12-3 in Chicago's last 40 games as a home favorite. Back the Under again. 

PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-115)

Cardinals vs Cubs betting card

  • ML Cubs (-155)
  • Under 8.5 (-115)

Picks made on 7/09/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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