The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks conclude a four-game series with a Sunday matinee at Chase Field.
It’s been a slow start to the season for the Diamondbacks, who are projected to be one of the most dangerous teams in the sport.
See why I’m betting them to get back on track with my Cubs vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, March 30.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Cubs vs Diamondbacks best bet: Diamondbacks moneyline (-125 at Caesars)
It was a rough debut season for Eduardo Rodriguez in the desert. After inking a four-year, $80-million contract last offseason, the southpaw was blasted for a 5.04 ERA and 5.53 xERA across 50 innings with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
I’ll offer him a partial pass — at least until I see this year’s results. He suffered a lat strain in last year's Spring Training and didn’t debut until August, and 50 innings isn’t an overly large sample.
Only three Chicago Cubs in the projected starting lineup have multiple at-bats against Rodriguez in their careers — Dansby Swanson, Kyle Tucker, and Justin Turner. They’ve combined to hit just 4-for-27 against him with nine strikeouts.
Another left-handed pitcher coming off an injury-plagued campaign gets the call on the other side as Matthew Boyd gets the nod for the Cubs. The 34-year-old hasn’t appeared in more than 15 games in a season since 2019, and his ERA has fluctuated wildly, so it’s difficult to know what to expect.
His 2.72 ERA across 39 2/3 IP a year ago was nice, but it was a small sample size, and the projection systems aren’t buying it, predicting an ERA close to 4.00 with his new ball club. This is a tough opening draw against an Arizona lineup with the highest wOBA (.343) and second-highest wRC+ (119) against LHP in 2024.
The Cubs weren’t quite as prolific against southpaws, ranking 16th in wOBA (.307) and 16th in wRC+ (99). If we call the starting pitching situation a wash, Arizona would hold the advantage at the plate and in the bullpen, which is enough for me to buy the moneyline at home at a close to even price.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Cubs vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 total bases
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 strikeouts
Diamondbacks moneyline
Ketel Marte positively rakes against LHP, posting a .448 wOBA and 190 wRC+ against them in 2024. Those are obscene numbers, troubling to the eyes of Boyd and his 4.74 career xFIP against right-handed bats.
Rodriguez isn’t what you’d describe as a strikeout pitcher (21.0% K-rate last year), but 4.5 is a low bar to clear. The Venezuelan has a long track record of exceeding this number, notching 5+ strikeouts in 25 of his last 33 outings.
Arizona is expected to be one of the best teams in baseball, but is off to a 1-2 start after the first three games of this series with the Cubs. I’m betting the Diamondbacks show up with a strong effort at home to even this opening series, getting productive outings from their star second baseman and $80-million starting pitcher.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks live odds
Cubs vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +105 | Arizona -125
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-190) | Arizona -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks are 13-7 in their last 20 meetings against the Cubs. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Cubs vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, 3-30-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, Dbacks TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (2024: 2-2, 2.72 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Eduardo Rodriguez (2024: 3-4, 5.04 ERA) |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Cubs vs Diamondbacks weather
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