The San Diego Padres have a chance to complete a four-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves when the clubs finish off their series at Petco Park tonight.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have led the way for the Padres offense and I’m expecting both players to continue their hot starts.
Keep reading for my MLB player props and Braves vs. Padres predictions for the series finale.
Braves vs Padres Sunday Night Baseball props
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Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+270 at Caesars) - Merrill Over 1.5 total bases (+104 at Caesars)
- Pivetta Over 5.5 strikeouts (-133 at Caesars)
Braves vs Padres props for Sunday Night Baseball
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+270 at Caesars)
Fernando Tatis Jr. had an injury-riddled 2024 season but the San Diego Padres star has started 2025 strong, with five hits and a .417 batting average through his first three games against the Atlanta Braves.
Saturday was his quietest performance so far as he went 1-for-4 and didn’t touch a base until the eighth inning, but it was a pretty tame night for everyone as the Padres eked out a 1-0 win.
Braves pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver is slated to make just his eighth career regular-season start but has faced Tatis Jr. once before, when the two-time All-Star homered vs. Smith-Shawver during Game 1 of last year’s NL Wild Card Series.
Tatis Jr. ranked in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate and 97th percentile in average exit velocity last season according to Baseball Savant, so he’s bound to put up plenty of homers in 2025.
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 total bases (+104 at Caesars)
Jackson Merrill got off to a red-hot start this season with a four-RBI performance on Opening Day and has carried that momentum throughout the series with five hits and five total bases through the first three games.
The 21-year-old was a standout for the Padres in his rookie season with a .292 batting average to go along with 277 total bases — both good for second on the team.
Merrill hits significantly better vs. righties compared to lefties, with a .318 average and .551 SLG against right-handers vs. just a .238 average and .364 SLG against southpaws. Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver is a right-hander, which obviously bodes well for the Padres youngster tonight.
Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 strikeouts (-133 at Caesars)
The Braves have not been seeing the ball very well at the plate to start this season with a whopping 28 strikeouts through their first three defeats. The Braves were one of just nine teams to average 9+ strikeouts per game last season and that trend seems to be continuing.
Nick Pivetta is set to make his Padres debut tonight and could feast on a swing-happy Braves team with 6+ strikeouts.
The right-hander led the Boston Red Sox in Ks per nine innings last season and has seen his strikeout rates increase over the past couple seasons. Pivetta owns a career rate of 9.96 Ks per nine innings but boosted that number up to 11.5 in 2023 and 10.6 in 2024.
The Padres starter logged 17 strikeouts in just 13 1/3 innings of work during Spring Training, so if he pitches into the fifth or sixth, there’s a great chance he reaches this number.
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