No, it’s not an April Fool’s Day joke. There’s more college basketball on tap this Tuesday as the inaugural College Basketball Crown continues with the Tulane Green Wave facing the USC Trojans.
The total has been on a steady rise as both teams trended to the Over to end the year, and the first night of the Crown saw games go 4-0 O/U.
I think it’s gone too far and will sell high as I explain more in my Tulane vs. USC predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, April 1.
Who will win Tulane vs USC?
The USC Trojans will advance to the next round. Eric Musselman has experienced postseason tournament success, reaching the Sweet 16 twice and the Elite Eight twice.
His squad ranks 76 spots higher in KenPom and faces a Tulane Green Wave team that lost two starters to the transfer portal.
Tulane vs USC prediction
My best bet: Under 158 (-110 at bet365)
Before explaining why I’m on the Under, allow me first to review why the total is so high. The USC Trojans have been a fairly easy team to bet on for much of this season, as it’s generally been “play the Over or pass” — they went 24-9 O/U.
After opening at 153.5, the total has seen a meteoric rise to 158. Bettors are noticing USC’s tendency to get in high-scoring games, and the first night of the College Basketball Crown did nothing to assuage that thought as games went 4-0 O/U to the total.
However, it’s gone too far for my liking, and I’m selling the rip. This is the second-highest total in a Trojans game this year, with the highest being a game against the all-offense, no-defense Iowa Hawkeyes, who play at a much faster pace than the Green Wave (Iowa 61st in adjusted tempo, Tulane 214th).
This is the highest total of any Tulane game this season. The Green Wave aren’t known for running and gunning and have played to the Under in high total games this season, going 1-7-1 O/U when the total is 150 or higher.
Handicapping the Crown is much like college football Bowl Season, in which attention must be paid to the transfer portal. In this matchup, Ron Hunter’s squad will be affected most: losing two starters in Kaleb Banks (14.7 points, 6.7 rebounds) and Kam Williams (9.3 points, 4.5 rebounds).
Among Tulane players who see at least 11 minutes a game, Banks and Williams lead the team in a 2-point field goal percentage of 62.9% and 62.8%, respectively — nearly 10 points higher than any other teammate.
Williams also led the Green Wave in made 3-pointers per game (1.9), while Banks was third on the team with 1.5, so Tulane’s multi-dimensionality and shooting effectiveness will be questioned at a neutral site. As a cherry on top, Mari Jordan’s 7.0 points and 0.9 made threes per game will also be absent (portal).
There are enough questions here that I’m not blindly playing the Over because the trends say so. Instead, I’ll buy back the Under at an inflated price.
Tulane vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
USC -8.5
First half Under 74
Under 158
USC played in a tougher conference and will be closer to full strength, so I have more confidence in Musselman’s squad. The Trojans shoot well from behind the arc (18th in 3-point field goal percentage per Haslametrics) and Tulane allows a ton of looks from downtown (353rd in 3-point attempt rate), so this looks like a solid spot for USC to get going.
Since I’m on the full game Under, I’ll also be on the first half Under. Tulane doesn’t project to do much efficiently on offense, doesn’t play with a ton of pace, and is worse on the road (349th in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric).
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Tulane vs USC odds
Tulane vs USC live odds
Tulane vs USC opening odds
- Spread: Tulane +6.5 | USC -6.5
- Moneyline: Tulane +225 | USC -285
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 | Under 153.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tulane vs USC betting trend to know
Tulane is 1-7-1 O/U when the total resides in the 150s. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tulane vs. USC.
How to watch Tulane vs USC
| Location | MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Tulane vs USC key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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