With 13 games on the slate, I'm backing two power hitters seeking their first home runs of the season and one offseason acquisition off to a hot start with his stick with tonight's home run props.
The MLB prop market odds are constantly changing, so it's wise to monitor them throughout the day.
Read on as I share my MLB player props and home run picks for Tuesday, April 1.
Best MLB home run props today
Ketel Marte (+475 at BetMGM)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+550 at DraftKings)
Kyle Tucker (+420 at FanDuel)
HR picks for April 1
Ketel Marte (+475 at BetMGM)
The winds are expected to blow out to right-center tonight at Yankee Stadium, which is ideal for a switch-hitting slugger like Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte.
He's coming off a career year where he whacked 36 home runs in 504 at-bats.
He’s yet to go yard in 2025, but he cracked 18 of his 25 bombs last season against righties and has a tasty matchup tonight.
New York Yankees righty Will Warren makes his season debut tonight. Warren served up two bombs per nine frames and picked up right where he left off this spring by allowing five HRs across 23 innings.
The switch-hitting Marte hasn’t gone yard yet, but that could change tonight against a fly-ball pitcher with the wind blowing toward the short right-field short porch.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+550 at DraftKings)
Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is riding a four-game hitting streak with Trevor Williams and the Washington Nationals in town.
The Blue Jays slugger has gone homerless in 2025 but belted 30 in 2024 and should have an opportunity to launch one against Williams or the Nats' bullpen.
Williams has been known to serve one up but saw a sharp decline in 2024 with fewer than 0.5 home runs allowed per nine, down from his 1.31 per nine career mark.
Decline or not, hitters have blasted 135 bombs across 3,988 career ABs against Williams — 45 of those jacks were on the road against righties, and that bodes well for Vladdy Jr. to go deep tonight.
If Guerrero doesn’t launch one against Williams, Nationals relievers have already surrendered four bombs across 13 2/3 frames.
Vladdy is swinging a hot bat, and the odds are too good for our MLB picks to pass up in this matchup.
Kyle Tucker (+420 at FanDuel)
Kyle Tucker, the Chicago Cubs' top offseason acquisition, belted 23 bombs across 277 at-bats in 78 games in 2024 and has begun his Cubs career with three jacks, including one on Monday night.
Athletics righty Luis Severino had a good season opener at Seattle, keeping the ball in the yard despite serving up four barrels with a 35.7% hard-hit rate.
Severino has allowed more HRs across the last two seasons (46) than his previous three campaigns combined (14).
His famed cutter-changeup combo is getting lit up, which bodes well for a streaky slugger on a tear like Tucker.
The forecast calls for strong winds blowing out to the right center.
Tucker is red-hot with an 11.1 % barrel rate this season against righties and has one bomb off Severino in seven at-bats.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Aaron Judge
(+220) - Shohei Ohtani
(+450) - Juan Soto
(+450) - Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+600)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+550)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Not intended for use in MA.
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