MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today for 4-1: Fading Aces

Luis Severino's strong first start of the season doesn't necessarily serve as a predictor for his second one. He was pitching in ideal circumstances (in Seattle) and now has to face a patient Cubs lineup at his dicey Sacramento home park.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Apr 1, 2025 • 08:19 ET • 4 min read
Luis Severino A's MLB
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The schedule is loaded up with 13 games and 26 teams hitting the diamond, and my top MLB player props have you covered for the action with a trio of starting pitcher picks.

Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara and Oakland Athletics righty Luis Severino both showed off on Opening Day against weak offenses, and the duo headline my MLB picks, as both face tougher tests on Tuesday, April 1.

Best MLB player props today

MLB props for April 1

Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)

Miami Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara fanned seven Pittsburgh Pirates across 4 2/3 frames in his 2025 debut, but he’ll face a much tougher lineup tonight. 

The New York Mets posted a middling 22.7 K% last season against right-handed pitchers, and they’ve packed some punch to start the 2025 campaign. New York has a solid .329 wOBA and .241 ISO against righties despite an unsustainably low .197 BABIP. 

Plus, Alcantara also issued four free passes and required 91 pitches to record 14 outs Opening Day, so I’m far from convinced he’s all the way back from his 2023 Tommy John Surgery. 

Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 strikeouts (+132 at FanDuel)

The Houston Astros are turning to Hayden Wesneski as their No. 5 starter to open the season, and he’s been a solid source of strikeouts throughout his early career. Wesneski struck out 14 batters across 9 2/3 innings this spring and sports a respectable career 8.67 K/9 and 23.0 K% across 190 frames in the bigs. 

He faces a weak San Francisco Giants offense tonight, too. 

The Giants ranked 25th with a .299 wOBA against righties last year, and they’re sporting a .297 mark alongside the fifth-highest strikeout rate (28.1%) to start 2025. 

Luis Severino Under 5.5 strikeouts (-120 at betway)

It was a solid season opener for Athletics righty Luis Severino. He fired six scoreless innings with six punchouts against the Seattle Mariners, but that start was on the highway at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, and the Mariners had the highest strikeout percentage against righties in the majors last year. 

The Chicago Cubs put 18 on the board in Monday’s series opener, and Sutter Health Park has the looks of a launching pad, as it's been the home of the Sacramento River Cats in the PCL since 2000. Plus, Chicago has been patient at the dish and sports an 11.8 BB% against righties this year after finishing third in baseball with a 9.7% mark in 2024. 

I expect Severino’s pitch count to climb while working with baserunners on the paths early and often tonight.

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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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