The only thing better than afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field is afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field between NL Central rivals in the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs.
St. Louis sends veteran righty Kyle Gibson to the hill, and Chicago will counter with young lefty Jordan Hicks. It’s the home team trading as a short favorite, and one of my free Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks is expecting Gibson’s recent rise in strikeouts to come to an end at the Friendly Confines.
Cardinals vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Kyle Gibson Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
There’s been an uptick in strikeouts from St. Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson over his past three starts. He’s recorded six or more in each outing for 21 across 17 2/3 innings. The 36-year-old righty has never been a true strikeout artist, though, and he recorded five or fewer punchouts in seven of his first 10 starts of the season for 46 punchouts over 59 innings.
Additionally, his swinging-strike rate (15.5%) and percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone (30.1%) have both skyrocketed during the highlighted three-game stretch. For comparison, Gibson recorded respective rates of 9.7% and 25.3% through his first 10 starts of the campaign, which are much more in line with his 10.6% and 27.4% marks in 2023.
The Chicago Cubs have been strikeout prone against right-handed pitchers with the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.2%) in the bigs, but I’m more interested in their improved offensive numbers against righties in June. Chicago ranks 12th with a .321 wOBA and 13th with a 109 wRC+, compared to respective .301 and 95 marks through April and May. The easy explanation is the Cubbies have been healthy for the majority of the month after multiple heart-of-the-order hitters missed time earlier in the season.
I’m also expecting to see some closing-line value with this bet and expect the Under to be carrying a notably higher vig ahead of the opening pitch. Gibson has never been a strikeout-per-inning arm, and I don’t expect him to pitch deep enough into Friday’s game to record six punchouts.
Cardinals vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Kyle Gibson Under 5.5 strikeouts
Cubs Over 3.5 runs
Cubs F5 moneyline
St. Louis is one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handed pitchers with a 28th-ranked .279 wOBA and 27th-ranked 82 wRC+. So while Chicago starter Jordan Wicks is likely to have a short leash because he isn’t stretched out as a starter, I expect him to hold the Cards in check to give the Cubs offense enough time to grab a head start on Friday.
I also value the noted improvements against righties from the Chicago lineup, and the Cubs average 4.42 runs per home game compared to 4.08 on the road. Finally, one of the reasons I’m targeting the F5 market is because the St. Louis bullpen has been sharp this season with a third-ranked 3.53 xFIP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Cardinals vs Cubs live odds
Cardinals vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Moneyline: St. Louis +111 | Chicago -120
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cardinals vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- While there hasn't been a lot of early moneyline action to move the odds for this game, it's notable that Pinnacle took the game off the board Friday morning.
- This total is a consensus 8 with the Under carrying the higher vig, which also aligns with the wind forecasted to be blowing in mildly at Wrigley Field this afternoon.
- The Pinnacle trading teams are widely respected as industry leaders, so when this game re-opens with new prices at Pinnacle, there’s potential for odds movement in multiple markets at other shops.
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Cardinals vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have hit the moneyline in 18 of their last 31 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs
Cardinals vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 6-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Midwest, Marquee |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Kyle Gibson (4-2, 3.76 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jordan Wicks (1-2, 4.44 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
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