Cardinals vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: San Fran Bats Do Damage Against Woodford

The St Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants will get the second of a four-game series going late Tuesday night in the Bay.

The Cardinals lost the opener 4-0 last night after dropping two of three to the Mariners in their previous series. 

Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates. Last night, the Giants' win marked a three-game winning streak, but it came after San Fran had lost three of its previous four. 

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for St Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants below.

Cardinals vs Giants odds

Cardinals vs Giants predictions

The safest assumption in this game is that runs will be scored, and I'm grabbing the Over as today's best bet considering I projected this as a double-digit total.

Conditions should be pretty comparable to how they were for Sunday Night Baseball. We took the Over that night and were unlucky to get a push. Like then, though, temperatures will be comfortable, and winds will be briskly flowing out to right field. These two pitchers are prone to home runs, and those balls may carry even further tonight. 

On one side of the mound, we have Jake Woodford. He's been really bad: I rarely look at an MLB starting pitcher and struggle to find things to like, but that's the case here. 

He held the Pirates to seven hits and five scoreless innings, but his other starts have been rough ones. The thing he had going for him in that outing against the Pirates was the fact he was facing a lineup that struggled to hit sinkers. Woodford has thrown that pitch more than any this season, and most teams have hammered it, as he's allowing a batting average of .290 against it.

Unfortunately, we don't have much data on what the San Francisco Giants have done against sinkers this season, but last season's numbers are impressive.

Depending on what lineup the Giants roll out, they could have as many as five batters in the lineup that hit over .290 or better against the sinker last season. Austin Slater's return to the lineup looms large here, as he led the way, slugging .880 against that pitch a season ago.

On that other side, John Brebbia will be the opener for the Giants, but he's likely to only go one inning. After that, San Fran is expected to turn to Jacob Junis for some long relief. It's unclear how long he'll go, but you should expect to see him through the bulk of the early innings.

While he hasn't had Woodford's struggles, he has similar hard-hit issues, and I like that we're getting this St. Louis Cardinals team eager to score runs after being shut out.

There's still plenty of power here in Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado. We shouldn't need too much from the Cardinals here to get the job done, but their bats are more than capable. 

I was surprised to see this number below 10, given how Giants games have trended lately, but I'll happily take it.

My best bet: Over 9 (-110 at bet365)

Cardinals vs Giants moneyline analysis

You definitely have to lean on the Giants here, especially early on. I don't want to pick on Woodford much more than I already have, but this should be a nightmare matchup for him.

The Cardinals pitchers have struggled, and it's been a big part of why they find themselves in third place in the NL Central at this early point in the season. The Cardinals have given up 4+ in five of its last six games and I don't expect to change tonight.

I'm not going crazy here because plenty of underlying metrics suggest this Cardinals team is underperforming offensively. That may be true too, however, the theme of this article is fading Jake Woodford for a host of reasons, and I wouldn't be doing that if I didn't at least give you the lean of Giants on the first-five moneyline. 

Cardinals vs Giants Over/Under analysis

We're jumping on the Over tonight. I have detailed reasons why fading both pitchers is a reasonable proposition. On one side, we have a pitcher that has performed poorly, and his expected ERA over 8 says it could get even worse.

On the other hand, if we get a heavy dosage of Jakob Junis, we'll have a pitcher who finds himself in a similar dilemma. The safest bet tonight is that one of these pitchers has a blow-up on the mound, and with that in mind, I'll sprinkle some of the first five innings Over as well.

The Over has gone 5-0 in the Cardinal's last five games following a loss. In addition, the Giants have rarely kept games low scoring after playing in a previous low-scoring game, as the Over is 4-0 in its last four games after allowing two runs or fewer. Both of these trends are active tonight.

Cardinals vs Giants game info

Cardinals vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jake Woodford (1-2, 6.05 ERA): Things have been rough for Jake Woodford. He's made four starts this season, and just one was a quality one. That came against the Pirates, where he gave up seven hits and zero runs in just over five innings of work. Other than that, it's been particularly ugly. He has one of the league's worst hard-hit rates and a barrel rate that isn't far behind. So, finding many reasons for optimism is a challenge.

John Brebbia (1-0, 5.63 ERA): Holy positive regression candidate. Brebbia has been quite unlucky this season. His hard-hit rate is in the dumps, but everything else has profiled him as a quality starting pitcher. Brebbia has a strikeout rate in the Top 4% of baseball. Of course, we're only going to see him for an inning or two, and with that in mind, it's hard to make any grand statements, but Brebbia is due for some clean innings. He's gone two scoreless in his last two appearances, but he's still pitched like a guy expected to have even more. 

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The Over is 5-0 in the Cardinal's last five games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Giants

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