The Seattle Mariners are starting to heat up with a couple of wins at home over the St. Louis Cardinals, but a tougher challenge beckons on Sunday with Chris Flexen taking the mound against Jack Flaherty. While Seattle has hit in the last couple of games, does it have enough to overcome a tough pitching matchup?
Let’s break down Cardinals vs. Mariners in our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday, April 23.
Cardinals vs Mariners odds
Cardinals vs Mariners predictions
Are the Mariners finally starting to hit? Well, they’ve scored five in each of the first two games of this series, but they did also have the pleasure of facing the ice-cold Miles Mikolas and the struggling Steven Matz. Sunday promises to be a much different animal with Jack Flaherty on the mound for the Cardinals.
Though Flaherty has been a mess in the strikeout and walk departments, he enters this start with a shiny 2.95 ERA through 21 1/3 innings. He’s managed to pitch to a very low .332 xwOBA on contact and get over 50% of all batted balls to come on the ground, which has really helped him limit the damage.
The righty is up against a Mariners squad ranked 18th in barrels per plate appearance and just 21st in home run to fly ball ratio. Seattle has proven it can do little at the plate when it gets the bat on the ball, so this might be a perfect spot for Flaherty.
On the other side of this one, Chris Flexen enters with a 7.79 ERA, and there’s little that’s gone right for him. His strikeout rate has somehow fallen even further, coming in at 13.8%, and he’s also walking 10% of the batters he faces. Together with a 42.6% hard-hit rate, I’m not sure how he slows an offense as good as that of the Cardinals.
My best bet: Cardinals moneyline (-110 at PointsBet)
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Cardinals vs Mariners moneyline analysis
St. Louis is currently sitting sixth in wRC+ with a high .266 average. It hasn’t posted the best isolated power in the world, but still sits ninth in barrels per plate appearance and fifth in hard-hit rate. These guys are simply making good contact.
On top of that, the Cardinals are only striking out in 21% of their plate appearances. So, their quality-of-contact numbers are all the more impressive when you consider how many times they’re getting the ball back in play.
Some will look at the 5.28 xERA of Flexen as a reason to believe he might not be this bad, but trust me, he is. He has only allowed three barrels all season, but he will surely allow more against an offense of this caliber. On top of that, he’s pitched to a .293 xBA, so it’s not as if all the hits he’s giving up aren’t legitimate.
Cardinals vs Mariners Over/Under analysis
I’m thinking this could be a good contrarian spot to play the Under. I’m still not totally sold that the Mariners have a good offense, and Flaherty has been finding his rhythm again after a rocky start to the season.
On top of that, while I believe the Cardinals certainly could tee off on Flexen and run up the score, the fact of the matter is that the righty has really only been victimized by an onslaught of base hits and walks. This is going to increase the likelihood of Flexen escaping innings without catastrophe, and it’s definitely within the realm of possibility he yields just four or five here in the loss.
While 51% of the tickets on the total are being wagered on the Under, 73% of the handle is on the Over. While the pros are the on the Over, I’ll ride with the public.
Cardinals vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, April 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, ROOTNW |
Cardinals vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jack Flaherty (1-2, 2.95 ERA): Flaherty’s career has been decimated by injury, but at 27 years of age, there’s still plenty of time to salvage something of it. He’s looked good at times in his four starts, but last go around he did allow four runs over six innings to the Diamondbacks.
Chris Flexen (0-3, 7.79 ERA): The right-hander was off to a great start after allowing just one run on four hits to the Guardians in his first outing of the year, but things have quickly spiraled. He’s now yielded 12 earned runs in his last two starts, spanning 8 1/3 innings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last five road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mariners
