We've got a Sunday Night Baseball Showdown in the City of Brotherly Love when the Philadelphia Phillies host the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. With Adam Wainwright squaring off against Zack Wheeler, we're looking at a variety of plays to maximize value.
Our favorite player prop picks tonight are centered around a pair of total bases selections with Kyle Schwarber staying hot at the dish and Paul Goldschmidt somehow available at plus money to clear his number. Finally, we'll buck trends on Wheeler's strikeout prop.
Be sure to also check out our full betting preview for Phillies vs. Cardinals on SNB.
MLB props for Cardinals vs Phillies
Picks made on 7/3/2022 at 2:15p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Cardinals vs Phillies prop bets
Can't stump the Schwarb
Kyle Schwarber's .218 batting average on the season is not awe-inspiring by any means, which will likely shy people away from trusting him too consistently to hit a total bases prop, but the power and on-base skills have been obvious. Despite barely clearing the Mendoza line, he's still getting on base at a .335 clip and a .502 slugging percentage for the year.
He's also turned a major corner since the beginning of June, which was apparent when he was named the National League Player of the Month. Schwarber is batting .268 since June 1. More importantly, he's slugging .643 thanks to more than half his hits (12 homers, six doubles) going for extra bases in that time.
The Phillies match up against veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright, who has been steady all year with a 3.07 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 15 starts. For all he does well, Waino doesn't miss bats at an elite level, which can result in plenty of hits and balls in play during any start. He's allowed at least seven hits in each of his last five starts dating to the beginning of June. Being around the plate as often as he is, Wainwright rarely issues a ton of walks — giving more than two free passes just once in his last 10 outings.
With Bryce Harper on the shelf, eyes are on Schwarber to pick up the slack, which he's done admirably. He'll also get the lion's share of opportunities as the Phillies have been batting him exclusively from the leadoff position since May 28. With Wainwright less likely than other arms to take advantage of Schwarber's propensity to strike out, the slugging lefty could clear this prop as quickly as the first inning.
Kyle Schwarber prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
The Golden-schmidt rule
This is a massive value play. Goldschmidt is the betting favorite to win the National League MVP because pitchers have simply been unable to get him out and he's not being limited to cheapies, either. He's the MLB leader in batting average (.346) and leads the National League with 45 extra-base hits (26 doubles, 19 home runs).
Goldy has 183 total bases and no one else in the NL is even close as C.J. Cron is next on the list with 162. The fact he's available at plus money, let alone +135, to clear 1.5 total bases — something he's done in eight of his last 10 games — can only be chalked up to him facing a difficult opponent in Zack Wheeler. The Phillies righty is great, a Cy Young hopeful, but he's not Goldschmidt's Kryptonite.
Goldschmidt is a prolific destroyer of left-handers, but he's still batting .319 with 15 home runs against right-handed pitching this season.
And if the patient Cardinals can work counts against Wheeler — more on that shortly — Goldschmidt will get to take his hacks against a Phillies bullpen that owns a 3.93 ERA on the season.
Paul Goldschmidt prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Wheeler's strikeout pitch disappears
Only four teams strike out at a lower frequency than the Cardinals do at 20.4%. A large number of their everyday players (Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson) have strikeout rates at 18.1% or lower. It's a rare night when an opposing pitcher strikes St. Louis batters out with abandon.
Now, Wheeler does own a career-best 10.44 K/9 across 14 outings and has cleared his 6.5 strikeouts total in the majority of his starts, including four of five in June. But, let's look at some of his opponents in that stretch. On June 4, Wheeler registered nine strikeouts against the Los Angeles Angels, who have the highest strikeout rate in the majors at 25.9%. The Atlanta Braves, against whom Wheeler struck out eight on June 28, are third in K% at 24.9. He also fanned exactly eight against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers, who rank sixth and 12th in strikeout percentage, respectively.
The Washington Nationals, meanwhile, only went down on strikes three times in seven innings against Wheeler. As bad as the Nats are this season, the one thing the offense doesn't do is go down on strikes with great frequency — they're one of those four teams ahead of the Cardinals.
The Cardinals also haven't struck out seven times against a starting pitcher since they ran into Corbin Burnes on June 20, a span of 11 games.
Zack Wheeler prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (+105)
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