The St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds will open their 2022 season series at Great American Ball Park on Friday night.
The Cardinals are in the midst of an extended road trip, having split a four-gamer with the Milwaukee Brewers before taking two of three from the Miami Marlins.
The Reds have played only two of their first 13 games in their own building, both of which were losses to the Cleveland Guardians. In fact, that mini-homestand kicked off a string of nine straight losses for Cincinnati.
Can the Reds finally get back into the win column in this one?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs Reds on Friday, April 22.
Cardinals vs Reds odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Cardinals opened as consensus -135 favorites, but bettors can’t seem to get enough of the underdog Reds in this spot. Bookmakers have brought St. Louis all the way down to -120 as of Friday morning. Action is also coming in on the Under, knocking the total down to 8.5 from the consensus opening of 9.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cardinals vs Reds predictions
- Prediction: Cardinals ML (-120)
- Prediction: Under 8.5 runs (-105)
- Best bet: Reds Under 4 runs (-115)
Picks made on 4/22/2022 at 11:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cardinals vs Reds game info
• Location: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Friday, April 22, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports
Cardinals vs Reds betting preview
Starting pitchers
Steven Matz (1-1, 7.27 ERA): The first two outings of Steven Matz’s Cardinals tenure could not have been more divergent. In his season debut on April 10, Matz was rocked by the moribund Pittsburgh Pirates to the tune of seven runs over three frames. The southpaw bounced back against the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday, silencing the opposing bats over 5 2/3 innings while allowing only three hits and striking out six. Matz will want to work on his ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.50 as he travels to a hitters haven on Friday night.
Hunter Greene (1-1, 4.35 ERA): The fire-balling Hunter Greene has been one of the few bright spots for the Reds thus far in 2022. Greene has a 1.06 WHIP with 13 strikeouts over the first 10 1-3 innings of his big league career. This will be his first-ever start at Great American Ball Park.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cardinals: Jack Flaherty SP (Out), Alex Reyes RP (Out).
Reds: Tyler Stephenson C (Out), Jose Barrero SS (Out), Mike Moustakas 2B (Out), Jonathan India 2B (Out), Luis Castillo SP (Out), Tyler Naquin CF (Out), Lucas Sims RP (Probable), Daniel Duarte RP (Out), Mike Minor SP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 11-3 in their last 14 road games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs Reds. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Reds.
Cardinals vs Reds picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Cardinals’ superior offense should fuel their victory on Friday night over the Reds.
St. Louis is ninth in runs per game (4.55), 10th in home runs (13), and 12th in batting average (.235) at this point in the campaign. Those numbers are far from overwhelming, but the dreadful Reds are 27th in runs (2.85), 24th in homers (nine), and 29th in average (.177).
Third baseman Nolan Arenado is off to a sensational start for the Cardinals, hitting .405 with five homers and 14 RBIs. The Redbirds’ offense is far from a one-man show, as second baseman Tommy Edman is batting .342 with three homers and seven RBIs.
St. Louis also appears to have the edge on the mound with the veteran Steven Matz going against rookie Hunter Greene. Matz had a lower ERA (3.76) and opponent batting average (.254) on the road last season while producing a higher strikeout rate (9.5 per nine innings) compared to his home figures (3.90 ERA, .278 opponent batting average, 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings).
Not only are the Reds struggling to score, but they’re also striking out a ton. Only the Baltimore Orioles have struck out more than Cincinnati this year. This plays right into Matz’s hands.
By contrast, the Cards are the second-most disciplined team at the plate this year, striking out only 81 times. That spells trouble for the hard-throwing Greene, who’s relied on the strikeout so far. The Redbirds are in a good spot trend-wise as well, as they’re 26-9 in their last 35 road games and 17-6 in their last 23 games against NL Central opponents.
Meanwhile, the Reds are 7-20 in their last 27 games as a home underdog, and 2-8 in their last 10 games following an off day.
Prediction: Cardinals ML (-120 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
The flood of action on the Under is easy to comprehend, even with this game taking place at Great American Ball Park. Bettors should follow the money.
The Cardinals’ solid-but-unspectacular bats meet a dreadful Cincinnati lineup in this one. Injuries to Mike Moustakas and Jonathan India haven’t helped, but Joey Votto, Tommy Pham, and Aristides Aquino have greatly underachieved. The trio has combined to hit 14-for-119, for a microscopic average of .118.
We’ve already discussed the Cards’ on-paper advantage in the starting pitching matchup, and while St. Louis’ bullpen has far exceeded the Reds’ to this point in the campaign (2.15 ERA vs. 4.57 ERA), these units may trade some zeroes in the late going. Cincinnati manager David Bell should have his full complement of relievers available after the off day, and there have been some bright spots in this bullpen.
Jeff Hoffman and Dauri Moreta have each recorded three straight scoreless appearances, and Alexis Diaz has blanked the opposition through 5 1-3 frames this year. Jordan Hicks likely won’t be pitching in relief following a three-inning spot start for St. Louis on Thursday, but Giovanny Gallegos (three saves, no earned runs over 5 1-3 innings) anchors this strong relief corps.
Prediction: Under 8.5 runs (-105 Caesars)
Best bet
Whether it’s a lefty or a righty on the mound, the hobbled Reds lineup can’t hit a lick. Bettors should be bullish on the Cincinnati team total on Friday night, even as they return home.
The Reds have scored two runs or fewer in each of their last six contests. This lineup will likely flail against Matz, as Votto and Aquino are a combined 4-for-41 (.098) against southpaws with 22 strikeouts.
The Cards should have a lead to protect late, meaning manager Oliver Marmol will deploy the top arms from his second-ranked bullpen to finish the job here, making a backdoor Over that much more difficult to conjure up.
Pick: Reds Under 4 runs (-115 at WynnBET)
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