Cubs vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Morton Shines Under the Lights

The Atlanta Braves earned a 3-1 win over the Chicago Cubs in the opening game of this series, and the defending World Series champions will now look to make it two in a row in a matchup in which they clearly have the edge on the mound. 

Will Atlanta win back-to-back games to move to within one game of the .500 mark? Continue reading our Cubs vs. Braves MLB picks and predictions to find out.

Cubs vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The best price you’ll find on the Braves’ moneyline in this game is -189, and the team opened as a -200 favorite in this one. You can, however, get them at +105 to cover the run line here.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Braves predictions

• Prediction: Braves -1.5 (+105)
• Prediction: Under 8.5 (-104)
• Best bet: Morton Over 5.5 strikeouts (-145)

Picks made on 4/27/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cubs vs Braves game info

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: MARQ, Bally Sports

Cubs vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Mark Leiter Jr. (0-1, 11.05 ERA): Leiter has pitched just 7 1-3 total innings over two appearances for the Cubs this year, and the righty has been pretty lousy thus far. The 31-year-old has given up nine earned runs on the season, and he has already walked six batters. Chicago will be hoping that he can turn things around a bit here, but his days in the rotation are numbered. He’s only seeing this opportunity because of injuries to some of the Cubs’ regulars. 

Charlie Morton (1-2, 6.32 ERA): Last year, Morton was 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA and he has had an ERA of 4.00 or lower in seven of his previous 11 seasons. With that in mind, it’s only a matter of time before the veteran starts to string together some solid starts. Don’t be fooled by his 6.32 ERA to start this year, especially considering he had a rough start against the San Diego Padres that really skewed his early-season numbers. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cubs: Clint Frazier OF (Out), Alec Mills P (Out), Wade Miley P (Out), Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out).
Braves: Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Luke Jackson P (Out), Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 9-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 13 home games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves

Cubs vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

It felt like Leiter pitched the game of his life against the Pirates last Thursday, but he still gave up two earned runs over four innings in that one. Still, the righty lowered his ERA from 18.90 to 11.05 with that performance, which just goes to show you how bad he was in his first start of the year — an outing in which he allowed seven earned runs in 3 1-3 innings in a road start against the Colorado Rockies. 

The reality of the situation is that Leiter just doesn’t belong in the major leagues, and he likely won’t see too many other opportunities to start games for the Cubs this season. Chicago is waiting on some starters to return to action, so they needed the 31-year-old to eat some innings. 

Leiter’s ERA of 3.77 in the minors last season just shows you that this is a guy that can’t even dominate lesser competition. With that in mind, it’s probably safe to assume that the Braves will rough him up a bit in this one. That’s why Atlanta is looking like such a good bet on the -1.5 run line here. This could be a game in which Matt Olson comes through for the Braves in a big way. The 28-year-old star is hitless in his last two games, but he won’t get a better opportunity than this one to snap out of it and put up some big numbers. Also, Ozzie Albies, who is a switch hitter, could also be able to do a little damage in this one. 

The Braves will also be feeling pretty good about having Morton out there on the hill here. The righty has struggled to start the year, but that means the law of averages will be at work. The veteran is due for a dominant performance, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he gave Atlanta six or seven really good innings in this one. Last season, Morton was 13-4 with a 3.14 ERA in night games, so he does his best work under the lights — that is true of the righty’s career, not just the 2021 season. 

Prediction: Braves -1.5 (+105 at WynnBet) 

Over/Under analysis

This is just a brutal matchup for a Chicago team that has not been able to figure out its offense in recent weeks. The Cubs have a few players that are dangerous at the plate, like Seiya Suzuki and Willson Contreras, but nearly everybody in this lineup is struggling right now. Chicago is coming off a game in which the team was only able to muster up four base hits, and the team has actually gotten only five or fewer hits in four of its last seven games. With that said, even if the Braves score five or six runs tonight, the Under is still well within reach. 

The Under happens to be 9-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 13 home games against right-handed starters, and it’s also 4-1 in the last five games Chicago has played with a total between 7 and 8.5. With that said, the Cubs are playing low-scoring games in the ones that the oddsmakers believe will be lower scoring. 

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-104 at TwinSpires)

Best bet

You might not find a better bet on the board in any sport than Morton’s strikeout prop tonight. The righty hasn’t yet had a game in which he was really dialed in on the mound, but this is his best chance of the season thus far. The Cubs have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games, so this is an offense that is really in a bad way at the moment. Chicago also happens to have quite a few guys that can struggle to make contact. 

Last year, the Cubs were first in the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and they have obviously undergone some changes to their roster since then. However, quite a few of those players still remain, and it’s only a matter of time before this year’s club starts to whiff a bit more. Now, Chicago faces a pitcher with very impressive swing-and-miss stuff, so you should see Morton easily reaching the six-strikeout mark in this game. 

Pick: Charlie Morton Over 5.5 strikeouts (-145)

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