The St. Louis Cardinals have come out of the break hot, winning three of four games including an 8-3 win over the Chicago Cubs in last night's series opener.
Monday's win brought the home team back to .500 on the year and one game out of second place in the NL Central. The Cubs, on the other hand, could be enormous sellers in the upcoming trade deadline as they have underachieved in 2021 and enter Tuesday's game as road dogs for the second straight game.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Cardinals on July 20.
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Tuesday, July 20, 2021
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Midwest, Marquee Sports Network
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonSt. Louis opened as -120 chalk at TwinSpires Sportsbook, dipped a few cents to -114, rebounded to -121 and is back at the -120 opener as of 5:45 p.m. ET. Chicago is drawing 61 percent of moneyline bets and 55 percent of moneyline cash. The total is fairly stable at 9, with 70 percent of bets/79 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCubs vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Trevor Williams (3-2, 5.51 ERA): Williams will be making his first start since May 26 after an emergency appendectomy landed him in the infirmary. He made one appearance out of the bullpen since that start and gave up seven runs — three earned — on six hits and a walk in 3 2-3 innings against the Phillies on July 6. He walks a lot batters, gives up more than a hit per inning, and is susceptible to the long ball. He hasn’t posted an ERA below 5.20 since 2018.
Johan Oviedo (0-5, 5.09 ERA): The Cardinals recalled Oviedo from Triple-A Memphis to make tonight's start, and it's been a massive struggle for the righty so far this season. He's given up at least two earned runs in 10 of his last 11 appearances and has completed five innings just three times. He mostly relies on a fastball-slider-curve mix, and while his opponent batting average (.255) has been league-average, he doesn't strike out many batters (40) and has struggled with his command, issuing a whopping 30 walks in 53 innings (5.1 BB/9).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Matt Duffy 3B (Out), Austin Romine C (Out), David Bote 3B (Out).
Cardinals: None.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 1-8 SU in their last nine vs. the NL Central. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.
Moneyline pick
Both clubs won their first series out of the break but the Cardinals’ pair of victories over the first-place Giants was much more impressive than the Cubs taking two of three from the Diamondbacks. Chicago followed that series win with a pee-wee-league loss to the Cards on Monday, finishing with four errors that led to four unearned runs. The offense also went 1-for-10 with RISP.
The Cardinals have been decimated in the starting rotation as three of their top starters are currently out with an injury — and Oviedo wasn't even announced as Tuesday’s starter until around 11:00 a.m. ET. However, it hasn’t stopped them from making a mid-season push as they have won six of their last nine and seven of their last nine at home.
St. Louis has seen plenty of Williams and the lineup is a combined 41-for-127 against the righty — good for a generous .323 batting average. Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Paul Dejong, Paul Goldschmidt, and Tyler O’Neil have all taken Williams deep. On the year, long balls have been a problem for the Chicago starter as he has given up nine homers in just 47 innings of work. His 1.65 HR/9 is the 11th-highest mark in the NL.
Williams has not shown an ability to go deep into games as he has reached the six-inning mark just twice in 11 starts. Getting multiple outs from the Chicago bullpen is always a rollercoaster. They were perfect on Friday and Saturday but showed their inconsistencies Sunday with four runs allowed on two hits and seven walks over 3 1-3 innings versus Arizona. The Cubs’ relievers have the sixth-best ERA in baseball but the 19th-highest xFIP.
Goldschmidt has been picking up the slack lately. The first baseman is white-hot over his last seven games and has a 1.547 OPS with four bombs and five walks. Goldy has a .389 batting average against Williams over 18 at-bats.
Heading into the series, the Cubs had dominated the head-to-head matchup, taking six of the eight meetings including a stretch of five in a row but the Cards have won the two most recent matches by a combined score of 14-3. The Cubs also own one of the worst road offenses in the league, scoring 3.61 runs per game away from home.
The Cubs’ inconsistencies on offense and defense makes them hard to trust and despite the late starter announcement from the Cards, we feel St. Louis still has the advantage on the mound.
PREDICTION: St. Louis (-115)
Over/Under pick
Last night’s game needed four unearned runs to hit the Over. The real worrisome thing was the Cubs’ inability to get to starter Jake Woodford, who was making just his second big-league start.
Chicago drew zero walks against a pitcher who had 15 walks in 25 MLB innings coming into the game. Other than a lead-off double to start the game (which they stranded), the Cubs collected just five singles against the rookie.
Out of the break, neither team has been impressive at the plate. Both clubs have a wRC+ below the league average of 100 and both clubs sit outside the Top 15 in OPS. Chicago is hitting .232 in the second half while the Cards aren’t faring much better at .237. St. Louis has also managed just two doubles over four games while the Cubs are striking out at a 25.1 percent rate.
The wind should also help out Under bettors. Busch Stadium is projected to have slight seven mph winds blowing in from center field and relatively low humidity at 50-60 percent. Remember: As humidity increases, air density decreases and creates less drag for balls hit in the air.
We aren’t getting any price breaks on the total with Tuesday's starters, and hitting the Over just because two below-average pitchers are starting isn’t always a recipe for success. Both teams have been profitable to the Under this year, with the Cubs being the best Under team in the NL at 36-51 O/U.
PREDICTION: Under 9 (-110)
Cubs vs Cardinals betting card
- St. Louis (-115)
- Under 9 (-110)
Picks made on 7/20/2021 at 10:06 a.m. ET
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