Two teams trending in opposite directions hook up at Busch Stadium tonight when the St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs.
These two bitter division rivals have had disappointing seasons by their lofty standards but this series could have major implications for both franchises. It could propel the Cubbies closer to a playoff spot, or be the final nail in the coffin for Oliver Marmol’s tenure as Cardinals bench boss.
The MLB odds favor the Cardinals at -115, but with Chicago winning three of four against the Cards just last week, I believe we're in store for a similar result tonight.
Find out which market I’m attacking in my MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs Cardinals on July 27.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals predictions
The Chicago Cubs have been one of the hottest teams in the Majors coming out of the All-Star break posting an 8-4 record, buoyed by their current five-game winning streak.
This streak has put them within touching distance of the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, who have a six-game lead atop the division. The Cubbies are also just four-and-a-half games out of the final wild-card spot, which makes this four-game series against the Cardinals crucial.
On the bump for the Cubs is Justin Steele, and he's been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season. He's the No. 8 betting favorite in the NL Cy Young odds and with good reason. He owns a team-best 10-3 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.
His last start came against today's opposition and we expect much of the same brilliance he showed just six days ago, where he tossed 6 1/3 innings of six-hit, two-run baseball while striking out nine.
Additionally, Steele does not give up many home runs (six on the year), and that's something the St. Louis Cardinals rely on for the bulk of their production.
As for the Cardinals, they come into this game after taking two of three from the Diamondbacks in the desert, scoring a total of 22 runs in the process.
They send out Miles Mikolas to the bump and he's been hit hard and hit often this season. He's coming off a start against the Cubs where he was tagged for 11 hits and five runs in just five innings of work.
Adjustments are one thing, but Mikolas isn't one to make them matter for much. For example, he faced the Marlins twice in a four-start span and was tagged for seven hits and three runs (two bombs) in the second outing. Facing the Cubs in back-to-back starts does not bode well for him.
Another angle we have going for us and that I love implementing in all sports is fading the home team in their first game back from a lengthy road trip — and the Cardinals fit the bill in this spot.
My best bet: Cubs moneyline (-105 at bet365)
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Cubs moneyline (-105)
Mikolas Under 4.5 strikeouts (-155)
Hoerner Over 1.5 total bases (-110)
For my Covers debut, I'm going to keep tonight's same-game parlay rather simple and very Cubs-centric. I spoke at length about the momentum the Cubs bring into this contest having won five straight and the importance of not letting the Cards play spoiler in this series. The Cubs have the pitching advantage and are mashing the baseball, so I believe they'll get the win here tonight.
This brings us to the opposing pitcher and the lack of adjustments Mikolas makes. He's facing the Cubs for the second time in as many starts and after striking out just three batters in the last meeting, we don't see him doubling up that tally. Mikolas has stayed under this 4.5K total in nine of his last 10 starts and outside of a six punchout game vs. the White Sox, he's not even come close.
And finally, I'm backing the Cubs' best hitter this season, Nico Hoerner, to go Over 1.5 total bases. Hoerner leads the team in hits with 110 and has been on fire since the All-Star break notching at least one hit in nine of 12 games, including five multi-hit games (three of which came in his last four games). He also hits Mikolas well, posting a .409 average in 22 at-bats.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
As noted above, I believe we're getting tremendous value tonight on the Cubs, who come into this game with a real purpose and advantages on the bump and in the batter's box.
Sportsbooks opened this line anywhere from -110 on each side, to +100/-120 in favor of the Cardinals. There's been very little movement either way with the line currently sitting at -105/-115 depending on the book.
In the Cubs' three wins last week vs St. Louis, the Cards closed as favorites in two of the three losses, so sportsbooks have clearly not adjusted to the Cubbies ability to beat up on bad teams.
In terms of the total, most books opened at 9 with the current number sitting at 9.5. The hitting conditions will be in favor of the batters today with winds blowing out to left-center at 6.9 mph, and the temperature fairly high at 103F (39.5C).
It would take a lot to play the under in this spot with both teams coming off games where they reached double-digit runs but in a division game, I believe the value may lie with taking the Under at -110.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $100 in bonus bets (win or lose)! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Chicago Cubs have hit the moneyline in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.95 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, July 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, BSMW |
Starting pitchers
Justin Steele (10-3, 2.95 ERA): Steele is quietly having himself a great season with a tremendous win-loss record and a Top 5 ERA across the entire Major Leagues. He's given up more than three runs just once over his last eight starts and is already 3-0 this season vs. the Cardinals.
Miles Mikolas (6-5, 4.33 ERA): It's been rough sailing for Mikolas this season and it doesn't appear to be getting any better. He was tagged for 18 and eight runs over his last two starts against the Cubs and Marlins and another rough outing is likely in the cards (no pun intended).
