Cubs vs Cardinals Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cards Cautious With Trade Asset

Following the Chicago Cubs’ 10-3 win in the series opener yesterday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals, the NL Central rivals will do it again tonight as Jordan Montgomery faces who David Ross called an unknown right-hander that could be Hayden Wesneski.  

With 100-degree temperatures, double-digit winds blowing out, and some issues with length from the starters, should bettors be getting on this Over 9.5 before it climbs to 10?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Cardinals for Friday, July 28.

Cubs vs Cardinals odds

Cubs vs Cardinals predictions

Jordan Montgomery could be making his last start for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. With the trade deadline looming and his name swirling around in the rumor mill, it wouldn’t surprise me if they took a conservative approach with the lefty today so as not to hurt his trade value.

However, even if he gets his full 95 pitches, the Under 16.5 outs is still in play.

The Chicago Cubs saw him just six days ago and that familiarity usually favors the hitters. The Cubs tagged him for seven runs (five earned) in that outing and this is the best offense in baseball this month.

Another factor working against Monty is the MLB weather. It’s a sweltering 100 degrees at Busch Stadium with double-digit winds blowing straight out. These are the first 100-degree temps pitchers have seen this season so wearing down is certainly possible tonight. 

There really is no need for the Cards to push him tonight in this heat if they are trying to unload him at the deadline. And even if they do roll him out for 95 pitches, this raking Chicago offense that rocked him just six days ago could make it an abbreviated start regardless. 

Betway’s Under 16.5 outs was the first market to open so bettors should do their due diligence and shop around for a better price, as always. THE BAT is projecting 16.1 outs with a full pitch count of 91 pitches. 

My best bet: Jordan Montgomery Under 16.5 outs (-105 at Betway)

Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis

As of 3 pm ET, the Cubs had not announced a starter, and no books had a line on the side or total. Cubs manager David Ross said the team would go with an unknown righty as a starter for tonight and with Hayden Wesneski no longer with the Triple-A team, it sounds like the second-year pitcher will get the ball.

I’m told that Hayden Wesneski, Iowa’s scheduled starter for tonight’s game, is no longer with the team in Memphis.

Chicago Cubs manager David Ross said the team would go with an unannounced righty as a starter for tonight’s game.

— Tommy Birch (@TommyBirch) July 28, 2023

Over his last three outings in Triple-A, Wesneski has a 19/2 K:BB ratio over 11 innings and is coming off a five-inning scoreless performance on Saturday so he will be on regular rest. This is a slight upgrade on the Michael Fulmer/Drew Smyly piggyback that I was expecting. But even if the young right-hander falters or doesn't go long, he’s being backed by some big bats tonight that could bail him out. 

The Cubs have the No.1 offense in baseball over the last 14 days, are riding a six-game winning streak, and have won nine of their 13 games since the break. They also tagged Jordan Montgomery for seven runs on Sunday in a 7-2 win. 

The Cards will have the starting pitching advantage but there is also the possibility that Montgomery doesn’t get his full leash because he has been rumored to be traded. St. Louis could manage him a little tighter with the trade deadline just around the corner and his health being very important. 

I’d love to back the Cubs here, but they were +110 at home vs. Montgomery last week and with the uncertainty of Wesneski and his leash, I’m off the side at +115 or worse. Betway opened this line at -115 and has since moved to even money and could move even further as BetMGM opened at +110. Even at the best price on the board, there isn't enough to like on the side.  

The Over is very much in play, though, at 9.5 with some books at 10. The Cubs got to Monty on Sunday with a closing total of 9 and he is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against the Cubs this season. Wesneski might not have a full leash as he threw five innings in his last start but just three innings in his previous two. That could open things for a Chicago bullpen that sits in the bottom half of the league in most metrics.  

Add in 100-degree temperatures and 10-mh winds blowing out, the Over is certainly in play tonight. 

Trend to know

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.95 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals

Cubs vs Cardinals game info

Starting pitchers

Hayden Wesneski (2-3, 4.75 ERA): Wesneski could be the unknown righty starter today as he left his Triple-A team today. He was working out of the bullpen in June with the Cubs and this will be his 11th start. He owns a 49/15 K:BB ratio over 60 2/3 innings and posted a 5.55 ERA as a starter with a .266 batting average against. He last pitched on July 22 in Triple-A and struck out eight batters and walked none over five scoreless innings.  

Jordan Montgomery (6-8, 3.37 ERA): Montgomery will making his 21st start of the season and possibly last with the Cards if he gets traded. He owns a 105/31 K:BB ratio with 11 home runs and the Cardinals are 7-13 SU when he starts. He is coming off a seven-run outing but had allowed just seven earned runs in his previous seven starts before that. THE BAT is projecting 91 pitches, 16.1 outs, 5.27 strikeouts, and 2.86 earned runs. 

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