The third installment of this four-game NL Central series gets underway Saturday with the fourth-place St. Louis Cardinals hosting the third-place Chicago Cubs.
Chicago won the first game 10-3 on Thursday and then secured a 3-2 victory in last night’s contest.
Will the Cubs take care of business once again, or can the Cardinals enact their revenge at Busch Stadium? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Cardinals on Saturday, July 29.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals predictions
Right-hander Adam Wainwright is slated to take the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals in this matchup, and he should be a good candidate to fade. Through 12 starts this season, Wainwright is 3-4 with a troubling 7.31 ERA and 1.92 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is highly unlikely. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate.
Specifically, we’re going to fade Wainwright in the strikeout department. Entering Saturday, he ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in K%, Whiff%, and chase rate.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 3.5 at FanDuel. Wainwright has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in each of his past seven starts.
While the Chicago Cubs are a very average team at the plate, there’s reason to believe they can avoid the punchout against Wainwright. Through 181 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Chicago lineup possesses a mere 14.4 K% and 17.1 Whiff%.
Wainwright has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four of his past five starts against the Cubs.
My best bet: Adam Wainwright Under 3.5 strikeouts (-182)
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Adam Wainwright Under 3.5 strikeouts (-182)
Over 10 (-104)
Cubs ML (-104)
This same-game parlay builds upon each other. We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let's look at the other two.
While Wainwright is likely to struggle once again, Chicago also hands the ball to a relatively weak pitcher in this matchup. It's been a tough season for right-hander Jameson Taillon, who is 4-6 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also poor, ranking in the 14th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate. With that said, he still outpaces Wainwright across the board.
Meanwhile, both teams are solid in the hitting department, ranking in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
St. Louis opened as a -130 favorite and was quickly bet down to its current price of -112. This line movement makes sense considering the public’s mistrust of Wainwright and the fact that Taillon is better across the board.
However, Taillon has also been untrustworthy, which brings us to the total. The number opened at 10 and has stayed put, which is understandable considering the pitching matchup.
The juice has slightly moved to the Under because of how big the number is, but I'd be shocked if it moves to 9.5 before first pitch. Both lineups are good enough to accumulate at least 11 total runs against Wainwright and Taillon.
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Trend to know
Wainwright has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in each of his past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, July 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, BSMW |
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (4-6, 5.75 ERA): It's been a very difficult campaign for Taillon in his first season with the Cubs. His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 14th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate. However, he did put together a solid outing in his last start against St. Louis, allowing just one run through 5 2/3 innings pitched.
Adam Wainwright (3-4, 7.31 ERA): Simply put, Wainwright is on his last legs in MLB. The 41-year-old's best days are long behind him, and his underlying metrics suggest that it's only going to get worse before it gets better. Currently, he ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate.
