The Chicago Cubs (6-5) hit the road for a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (7-6).
Dave Roberts’ ballclub enters with high spirits after grabbing two of three from the rival San Francisco Giants.
The Cubs are also in good form, having won five of their last seven games, most recently taking two of three from the Seattle Mariners.
Game 1 sees red-hot left-handed Justin Steele take the mound for the Cubs to face off against Noah Syndergaard.
Check out MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Dodgers on Friday, April 14.
Cubs vs Dodgers odds
Cubs vs Dodgers predictions
The Dodgers have been the bane of my existence this week, as I’ve dropped two straight best bets when targeting their games. Here’s hoping we can get back on the right track with a player prop that I like for Game 1 against the Cubs.
Noah Syndergaard gets the nod for the Dodgers. He was once one the best pitchers in the game, blowing hitters away with a powerhouse fastball while pitching for the New York Mets. My, how times have changed.
The man they call “Thor” saw his decline start in 2019, when he led the NL in earned runs allowed while posting career-highs in ERA (4.28), xERA (3.41), and FIP (3.60) after previously dominating opponents across his first four seasons in the MLB.
He underwent Tommy John surgery the following offseason and missed the entire 2020 season and all but two innings of the 2021 season as he continued to experience elbow discomfort and drops in velocity. He hasn’t been the same pitcher since, posting a 3.94 ERA and 4.43 xERA across 134.2 innings a year ago.
Once a pitcher whose average fastball velocity approached 100 mph (99.6 in 2017), Thor now averages just 93.0 mph on his fastball — a career worst. It’s a noticeable drop from last season alone, when his fastball averaged 94.5mph. Such a sharp drop in velocity will make Thor entirely hittable. While he does have some decent off-speed pitches, such a sharp dropoff is a major red flag for his outlook.
Thor’s hits allowed prop is set at 5.5 with plus money on the Over. I’ll be taking the Cubs to get at least six hits off a pitcher who is experiencing one of the biggest dropoffs in velocity of any pitcher in the MLB.
Syndergaard had a minuscule 16.8% strikeout rate a season ago while also having a low 5.5% walk rate. In other words, he now pitches to contact. The Cubs’ approach at the plate involves making plenty of contact — they have a strong .280 batting average this season while ranking just 24th in strikeout rate (20.8%) and 21st in walk rate (2.9%).
Syndergaard has allowed more than 5.5 hits in nine of his last 12 regular season starts yet this prop is being juiced with plus money to the Over. I’ll gladly take a poke at the Over.
My best bet: Noah Syndergaard Over 5.5 hits allowed (+113)
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Cubs vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
The Dodgers opened at -185 on the moneyline, but there has since been action on the Cubs, causing the line to move down. Currently, the best price available on Los Angeles is -164 at Caesars, while the best available comeback on Chicago is +148 at Unibet.
I can see why there’s been action on the Cubs considering they have the starting pitching advantage in this matchup. I outlined above why Syndergaard has a hazy forecast for this season, so let me now touch on why it’s been all sunshine and rainbows for Justin Steele so far.
The Cubs’ southpaw starter has been lights out, allowing just two total earned runs across his first 12 innings of the season. He impressed last year with a 3.59 xRA and 3.20 FIP to pair with a strong 24.6% strikeout rate. Steele was also a Statcast darling, posting a superb 3.9% barrel rate that was so low it almost defied belief.
He’s back to his ways in 2023, falling to allow a single barrel across 31 batted ball events. His strikeout rate has dropped a bit to 23.4%, but I don’t find that concerning since his swinging strike percentage has actually jumped from 10.1% a year ago to 13.2% this season.
Cubs vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
The total is set at 8.5 across the board. Most books have juiced to over to -115 or -120, although be sure to shop around and use Covers’ MLB odds tool, as better prices are available.
Both teams have been profitable to the Over so far this season — the Cubs are 6-5 O/U while the Dodgers are 7-5-1 O/U.
I understand why the total is juiced to the Over, considering I’m not forecasting Syndergaard to find much success as he continues to grapple with a dip in velocity that alters his entire method on the mound. On the other side of things, Steele has been great so far this season, but he’s still facing off against a dangerous Dodgers lineup.
Expected to skip a beat with a weakened lineup compared to previous seasons, the Dodgers have still been mashing the ball to begin 2023. They rank second in both wRC+ (128) and OPS (.853) to only the infernal Tampa Bay Rays, who are on a legendary hot streak to begin the year.
The trends seem to support the other side of this total, however, as Los Angeles is 30-11-2 in its last 43 games following a day of rest while Chicago is 35-14-4 in its last 53 games following an off day and 20-9-1 to the Under in its last 30 games against a right-handed starter.
Cubs vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, April 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, SNLA |
Cubs vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Justin Steele (1-0, 0.75 ERA): Steele has been superb in a limited sample size this season, allowing just one earned run across six innings in both of his respective starts this season — one against Milwaukee and one against Texas. This will be the first time in 2023 he’s been asked to perform on the road. He impressed with a 3.18 ERA a year ago while posting a healthy 24.6% strikeout rate.
Noah Syndergaard (0-1, 6.30 ERA): This is Syndergaard’s second year in Los Angeles but first in a Dodgers uniform. He posted a 3.83 ERA across 80 innings a year ago for the Angels. This year is off to a rough start, as he most recently was shelled for six earned runs across four innings in a loss to Arizona. His velocity is simply not what it used to be, and he has just an 18.2% strikeout rate after posting a career-low 16.8% a year ago.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
Noah Syndergaard has allowed at least six hits in nine of his last 12 regular season starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Dodgers
