Cubs vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Gibson Plays Sweet Tune

We have the first matchup of this three-game series as the NL East’s Philadelphia Phillies host the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs. This is the first meeting between these two clubs this season.

The total for this game is currently set at 9 with slight juice on the Over. Will we get a high-scoring affair between these two clubs, or will we get a pitcher’s duel in Philadelphia? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs Phillies on Friday, July 22.

Cubs vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Phillies were unveiled as consensus favorites of -135 on Thursday morning. The opening total was unveiled at 9.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Phillies predictions

• Prediction: Phillies ML (-135)
• Prediction: Under 9 (-105)
• Best bet: Under 9 (-105)

Picks made on 7/21/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cubs vs Phillies game info

• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Friday, July 22, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: AppleTV+

Cubs vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15 ERA): Despite a tough start to the season, Steele has been in tremendous form recently. Over his last seven starts, he’s 2-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. In his most recent outing, Steele allowed three earned runs on six hits through six innings in Chicago’s 7-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles.

Kyle Gibson (5-3, 4.35 ERA): Like Steele, Gibson enters this contest in good form as he’s been dominant in each of his last two starts. In his most recent outing, he shut down the Miami Marlins, allowing just one earned run on four hits through six innings pitched in a game that Philadelphia won 2-1. Prior to that, Gibson pitched seven shutout innings while allowing just two hits against the powerful Cardinals offense in a 1-0 Philadelphia win.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 13-4-3 (76%) in the last 20 combined games for these two teams this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Phillies

Cubs vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to continue their win streak as they have won three straight and eight of their last 13 games (62%). The opposite rings true for the Chicago Cubs, who have lost 11 of their last 14 contests (79%).

I expect both of these trends to continue as right-hander Kyle Gibson is slated to take the mound for Philadelphia. Through 18 starts this season, Gibson is 5-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

While those numbers are certainly nothing to brag about, Gibson has started to turn it around in his last two outings, where he’s 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.54 WHIP.

Philadelphia won each of those two games and has won in five of Gibson’s last eight starts (63%). Through 57 career plate appearances against Gibson, this current Cubs roster possesses a mere .205 xBA, .362 xSLG, and .250 xwOBA.

Following Gibson is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Since June 1, the Phillies’ relief pitching ranks third in the league in ERA, fourth in BA, third in SLG, and fourth in wOBA. 

Over the last 10 meetings between these two teams, the Phillies are 8-2 (80%).

Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

While the Philadelphia Phillies have been winning a lot recently, the majority of those games have been low-scoring, as the Under has hit in eight of their last 10 contests (80%). Chicago possesses a similar trend as the Under is 5-2-3 over its last 10 games (71%).

I expect both of these trends to continue with two solid starting pitchers taking the mound in this matchup, especially with Kyle Gibson coming off two dominant starts. There were nine or fewer total runs scored in each of those two outings and in four of Gibson’s last six starts (67%). 

However, Philadelphia’s pitching staff may not get too much run support, as the Phillies are slated to go against left-hander Justin Steele. Through 17 starts this season, Steele is 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. While those numbers are not good, Steele’s metrics suggest that positive regression is looming. This season, Steele boasts a .296 xwOBA, .241 xBA, and .332 xSLG.

We have started to see this positive regression hit recently for Steele. Over his last seven starts, Steele is 2-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

There have been nine or fewer total runs scored in five of those seven games (71%). 

Prediction: Under 9 (-105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

I think the Under is the strongest play to make in this game. While the trends certainly point to a Philadelphia victory, if we get a low-scoring affair, it turns the game into more of a coin flip if both starters perform as well as advertised.

Philadelphia’s lineup has taken a big hit with the injury to Bryce Harper, which has certainly been a factor in their recent low-scoring games. Meanwhile, Chicago’s lineup is just extremely poor with a few solid young players sprinkled in.

Both starting pitchers have been in good form recently, which has further led to low-scoring games for each of these two teams. I think we get a pitcher’s duel through the first half of this ball game, \ Philadelphia’s bullpen should be able to shut down Chicago and keep this affair low-scoring while giving the Phillies the victory.

Pick: Under 9 (-105 at DraftKings)

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