Cubs vs Pirates Predictions, Picks, Odds: Suzuki Lights a Spark for Chicago

As we close in on the final weeks of the season, Chicago will look to stay near the top of the National League Wild Card race when the Cubs face off with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday night. 

Javier Assad will take the mound for the Cubs, having registered a sub-3.00 ERA over four starts in August. He’ll hope to get more run support than the Cubs provided on Friday when they fell 2-1 to even the series.

Meanwhile, the Pirates will be hoping to get an inning or two of work from reliever Colin Selby as they prepare for a bullpen game. They got plenty of rest after Mitch Keller went eight strong innings last night. 

Find out where the best bet lies in this one by checking out our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Pirates on August 26.

Cubs vs Pirates odds

Cubs vs Pirates predictions

While the Chicago Cubs may have seen their bats go cold the past couple of weeks, Seiya Suzuki isn’t to blame.

After hitting .177 in the month of June and .240 in July, Suzuki has regained the prowess he showed at the plate in May when he posted a .319 batting average to go along with five homers and a .977 OPS.

August has seen Suzuki get super hot, as the Japanese outfielder currently boasts a .350 average. He’s registered a hit in 15 of his 18 games played this month, and has six multi-hit contests. 

But it’s not just the hits that have been consistent for the Cubs’ outfielder. Suzuki has recorded at least two total bases in each of his last six games, with three multi-hit games and three other instances where he either doubled or drove one out of the yard. 

The Cubs saw their bats silenced on Friday night by Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller, who allowed just four hits over eight strong innings. However, two of those hits were recorded by Suzuki.

Suzuki has just 10 strikeouts in 63 plate appearances this month, and over the past nine games, he’s been set down on strikes just three times in 32 at-bats. He’s putting the ball in play, and he’s finding ways to get on base. In 60 August at-bats, he’s managed 21 hits — including nine for extra bases. 

Colin Selby has not lasted longer than two innings in any appearance for the Pirates this season, meaning Suzuki may not even face him. However, against the current bullpen pitchers that Pittsburgh could deploy, he’s 5-of-16 with two doubles and a walk. 

Suzuki is hitting .289 away from home this season, boasts an OPS of 1.058 in August, and now faces a Pittsburgh bullpen that has the 10th-highest WHIP in the majors this season. It makes the streaky Cubs outfielder great value at his current price to continue his multi-base streak.   

My best bet: Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases (+145)

Cubs vs Pirates same-game parlay

Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases (+145)

Colin Selby Over 1.5 strikeouts (+150)

Ian Happ Over 0.5 hits (-210)

+ODDS at bet365

Our same-game parlay combines Suzuki’s total bases with a pair of player props that should come through for a sizable profit. 

While Selby has been erratic at times — giving up 11 hits and six walks in 8 2/3 IP — he’s got some filthy stuff. The right-hander's first appearance in the majors saw him register three strikeouts in 1 2/3 IP against the Braves.

Selby has also registered multiple punch-outs in four of his seven appearances, including three of his last four. Keller struck out three of the first five batters he faced on Friday night, so I’ll take Selby to get at least two before he makes way to the rest for the Buccos' bullpen. 

To finish off our SGP, Ian Happ has been held hitless in just one of his last 10 games and accounted for two of Chicago’s other three hits last night. In a game where the switch-hitter is going to be able to get constant mismatches based on the reliever pitching, I’ll take Happ to continue finding ways to get on base. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Cubs come into the game with a 67-61 record and are winners of six of their last nine. They are in the thick of the Wild Card race and are favored to win tonight as -130 betting chalk. On the flip side, the Pirates are just 7-10 over their last 17 games are are listed as +115 home dogs.

The O/U of 9.5 feels a bit high, especially considering the first two games of the series haven’t eclipsed that mark. While each of their three meetings earlier this season in Chicago saw nine or more runs, the five games played in Pittsburgh between these teams have seen four of five go below 9.5. 

I think the Cubs should ultimately win this game. Javier Assad has pitched well down the stretch and now faces a Pirates team that will need to rely on bullpen arms to keep them in it against a Chicago team that's in the thick of the postseason race.

Trend to know

The Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Pirates. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates

Cubs vs Pirates game info

Starting pitchers

Javier Assad (2-2, 3.13 ERA): Assad has gotten the job done this month, with an ERA of just 2.86 in August. The right-hander avoids getting hit hard and does a solid job of getting ground balls. The Pirates have the eighth-lowest launch angle on average and rank fifth-worst in slugging this season, so those factors should allow Assad to keep the Pirates from putting up crooked numbers.

Colin Selby (1-0, 7.27 ERA): Selby’s likely not staying in for more than two innings, and is expected to give way to Osvaldo Bido. Regardless of how long he goes, Selby’s not been reliable this season, allowing batters to hit over .300 against him.

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