Diamondbacks vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Home Crowd Helps Cook Snakes

What a matchup we have lined up. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will meet tonight in Game 1 of the NLCS, with the series winner going to the Fall Classic.

The Phillies got here by doing what they did last season: defeating the Atlanta Braves. Despite seemingly being against the MLB odds, Philly barely broke a sweat. Atlanta got one in the Peach State but then never won again.

Arizona? It simply swept the best team in baseball over the last decade in the Los Angeles Dodgers. After two impressive series to get here, the intensity of how spectacular this one should be goes up a notch and World Series odds hang in the balance.  

What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and MLB playoff predictions on Monday, October 16. 

Diamondbacks vs Phillies odds

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 1 odds

Rangers vs Astros series odds

Team
Diamondbacks	+150	+150	+170	+155	+150
Phillies	-175	-178	-200	-180	-175

Diamondbacks vs Phillies predictions

I wanted to find a way to bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks odds here. By nature, I'm a contrarian baseball bettor, and there's undoubtedly overwhelming support in the market for Philly. I broke down the matchup, went through the two early games the pair played early in the season that they split, and searched for an angle — nothing to be found.

I can't get there. This D-backs team is young, charismatic, and likable as can be. 

The Philadelphia Phillies often talked this week about how they see themselves in them. Catcher JT Realmuto said, "They are playing a lot like us right now," and that's difficult to dispute. But at this moment, in this environment that we've seen this postseason in Philly? I cannot back a team that hasn't been there. Arizona has to feel something at some point, and I think tonight's gravity gets to them. 

If you've watched the postseason, you've seen the impact Philly fans have made. There's not much to say about it that's quantifiable, but if you've watched, you know. It's a big reason why the Phillies are undefeated in the postseason games at Citizens Bank Park. They repeatedly got under the skin of Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., for one.

How will one of the youngest teams in baseball respond to this? This isn't the crowd that greeted Arizona in Los Angeles. That one seemed riddled with anxiety as the Dodgers' season crumbled before its eyes. This one will be rabid, ready, and loud throughout the game. This tilts things in Philly's favor, and that's before you even get to the handicap.

Zack Wheeler will again take the mound, and he's been nails this postseason, amassing an ERA of just 2.08 with three earned runs in just over 12 innings. And, even that's been because he's been a bit unlucky. A 0.69 WHIP illustrates that. I love his matchup against this D-backs squad tonight because of his pitching arsenal. Wheeler throws a lot of high-velocity fastballs. He throws the four-seamer nearly 50% of the time, and his average velocity ranks in the Top 20% of MLB pitchers. Overall, this Arizona team has been great against the fastball this season, but there are drops in slugging percentage when facing the higher velocity stuff. That's the issue for tonight.

On the other side is where I have some real concerns. It comes back to playing on the road, and the data backs it up. This season, the story with Arizona starter Zac Gallen has been his home and road splits. Gallen's ERA is an impressive 2.47 at home with a 1.03 WHIP. On the road, his ERA jumps to 4.42, and his WHIP also rises significantly. 

I'm keeping it simple and trusting what the numbers have told me all season, along with this postseason: back Philly at home and fade Gallen on the road.

My best bet: Phillies moneyline (-165 at bet365)

Diamondbacks vs Phillies same-game parlay

Phillies moneyline

Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 hits

Phillies first three inning moneyline 

+250 at bet365

We're taking a conservative approach with our same-game parlay with two highly correlated plays to go alongside our best bet.

The first is Nick Castellanos to get a hit. This is a value play. He's one of the hottest players in the postseason and is priced in the -170 range to get a hit. I made it closer to -200, so I'll happily play that edge.

The last part is the Phillies leading after three innings, primarily because of what they've done at home. Philadelphia has scored in the first three innings of its home games this postseason all but once, and the time it didn't, it stuck one inning later. This also plays directly into the hands of the Gallen's road struggle.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Our best bet is the Phillies moneyline. 

This team is currently playing some incredible baseball and possesses both an experience and a pitching edge over its upstart opponent. It's also at home, where it seemingly always wins in the playoffs. My projections made this price -172, so even if we're laying some juice, there's value in the number.

I don't have a strong feel for this total and won't be playing it. With that said, I expect Philadelphia to score runs, and it's just a matter of Arizona doing its part to get the job done. Gallen is on a streak of Unders when pitching. Arizona's games have gone in that direction in three consecutive starts, including his two postseason appearances. In addition to that, eight of Arizona's last 10 games have gone Under.

Trend to know

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+10.78 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies

Diamondbacks vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Zac Gallen (2-0, 3.18 ERA): In general, Gallen has overperformed. Some regression came to him in the second half of the season, but he still finished the year with actual numbers that were more impressive than his expected numbers. With that said, he's off to a good start this postseason with back-to-back solid performances. 

Zack Wheeler (1-0, 2.08 ERA): Wheeler started to get things rolling as the season ended. Although his surface numbers were down on the whole, he has yet to give up more than three runs in a start since the start of September. Not all of those accomplishments are created equal, but that stands out given how many high-pressure games the Phillies have had recently. Metric-wise, there's little you can fret with for Wheeler. He'll enter today in the Top 20% of qualified pitchers in barrel rate, exit velocity, and chase rate. 

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