Two playoff stalwarts begin a three-game weekend series as the Los Angeles Dodgers (62-42) visit the Houston Astros (53-49). Friday night's game features a starting pitching matchup between Gavin Stone and Framber Valdez.
Both starters have been effective this season, so I'm eying the total with my Dodgers vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks for July 26.
Dodgers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
After Gavin Stone was roughed up for a 9.00 ERA and 6.40 xERA across his first 31 innings in the big leagues a season ago, there was reason for skepticism as he entered 2024 as a full-time member of a beleaguered rotation. But all the 25-year-old has done this year is dominate his opposition, posting a 3.19 ERA and 3.60 FIP to help stabilize his team during yet another run toward the NL West title.
The Central Arkansas product has excelled by limiting hard contact, ranking in the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate and the 89th percentile in barrel rate. While he’s not necessarily known as a strikeout pitcher, his 11.1% swinging strike rate and 31.8% chase rate (83rd percentile) are encouraging.
He faces a Houston Astros lineup that performed well against RHP to start the year but has since fallen off. In 446 plate appearances since July 4, they rank 23rd in wRC+ (89) and 24th in wOBA (.291) against RHP.
Houston trots out steady veteran Framber Valdez. He’s been his usual effective self — he hasn’t posted an ERA above 3.70 since joining the rotation in 2020 and he’s on pace yet again this year with a 3.63 ERA.
The Los Angeles Dodgers typically mash LHP but have been much more muted on that front lately, posting a mediocre 99 wRC+ (17th) and .306 wOBA (18th) in the month of July. The last six southpaw starting pitchers they’ve faced have combined to allow just five earned runs across 29 1/3 innings.
Both teams have Top-10 bullpens and are in decent shape if either starter trips up, which would be unexpected.
Houston is 20-26-3 O/U at home this season while LA is 22-28 O/U on the road. The Dodgers are 2-7 O/U in Stone’s last nine starts, and I’m betting on another Under coming through on Friday night.
Dodgers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Framber Valdez Under 5.5 strikeouts
Gavin Stone Over 4.5 strikeouts
Valdez is striking out fewer batters than ever before. His 20.6% K-rate is a new career low, while his 10.2% swinging strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2021. He ranks in just the 35th percentile in chase rate (27%) and there aren’t a ton of signs that he’s turning things around.
L.A. is difficult to punch out, posting an 18.9% K-rate against LHP while drawing plenty of walks (9.3% walk rate) and forcing opposing pitchers to labor.
I mentioned earlier that Stone has posted some strong underlying numbers that imply future strikeout potential. Houston hasn’t been immune to strikeouts against RHP with a 22.6% K-rate since July 4, so I’ll bet on some of Stone’s swinging strikes turning into Ks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Astros odds
Dodgers vs Astros live odds
Dodgers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 | Houston -1.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +108 | Houston -117
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- L.A. has come out hot from the All-Star break, winning six of their last seven games.
- Houston took two of three from the Mariners before dropping two of three to the Athletics following the break.
- The Dodgers have cashed the Under in 22 of their last 39 away games.
- The teams have combined to go 4-10 O/U in their last 14 meetings in Houston.
Dodgers vs Astros trend
The Dodgers are 2-7 O/U in Gavin Stone’s last nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Astros.
Dodgers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 7-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (9-3, 3.19 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (8-5, 3.63 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Astros latest injuries
Dodgers vs Astros weather
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