The Los Angeles Dodgers scored three in the opening frame of Tuesday's meeting with the Arizona Diamondbacks but were unable to follow that up with any more offense, losing 5-3 after the home team plated a pair of eighth-inning runs to seal the deal.
Our free MLB betting picks and predictions take a look at whether or not the Dodgers get back on track tonight in the desert.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as -200 favorites but that line shifted at some books overnight to -179 while remaining around -200 at others. It's worth shopping around. The total opened between 7.5 and 8.5 on Tuesday night and has largely remained in that range into Wednesday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks predictions
Picks made on 4/27/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
• First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet LA, Bally Sports Arizona
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks betting preview
Starting pitchers
Julio Urias (1-1, 3.00 ERA): Urias was absolutely spectacular in 2021 and was maybe overshadowed by teammate Walker Buehler. He went 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts over 185 2-3 innings. He got hammered in his first start, allowing six runs — though only three were earned — on six hits and two walks in just two innings of work. He's since righted the ship with back-to-back solid starts,
Zac Gallen (0-0, 1.00 ERA): Gallen is easing his way back into the swing of things, accruing just nine innings in two starts. He's looked sharp in limited action, allowing just one run in his two outings — both against the Mets.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: David Price P (Out), Blake Treinen RP (Out), Andrew Heaney P (Out), Danny Duffy SP (Out), Dustin May SP (Out).
Diamondbacks: Josh Rojas OF (Out), Luke Weaver SP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks' last four overall and is 5-0 in the Dodgers' last five against a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Dodgers are overwhelming favorites to win on Wednesday and it's easy to see why. At 12-5, Los Angeles is one of baseball's hottest teams to start the year and haven't lost back-to-back games since the opening series. The Dodgers lost a weird one on Tuesday where they couldn't score after the first inning, allowing the 7-11 Diamondbacks to escape with a win.
This isn't happening again this afternoon.
Dodgers starter Julio Urias has become a fixture in the rotation. He may be the No. 3 option behind Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, but that doesn't mean he's not cut from the same cloth. He led the majors with 20 wins last season and while some of that success can be attributed to run support and pitching for baseball's best team, Urias was dominant. He recorded a 2.96 ERA in 185 2-3 innings across 32 starts, marking the first time he'd pitched a full season in the rotation.
With injuries seemingly behind him for the time being, Urias is a premier arm in the NL and he shouldn't have much trouble against the Diamondbacks.
Arizona ranks dead last in team batting average this year at a pathetic .182. Only four teams have scored fewer runs in MLB, and only the Cincinnati Reds have posted a worse wRC+ than the D-Backs' 73.
And while the Diamondbacks came away with the unlikely victory last night, they managed only four base hits while the Dodgers simply failed to cash in on their chances. Los Angeles left a whopping 18 runners on base compared to Arizona's six.
With the Dodgers moneyline largely being set between -180 and -200, oddsmakers aren't buying a repeat. And while that is a viable option, the run line is worth considering this afternoon.
Despite yesterday's loss — and L.A.'s shocking lack of clutch hitting — the Dodgers still own the best run differential in MLB at +46. The San Francisco Giants (+45) and New York Mets (+38) are the only other teams with a positive run differential above 25.
When the Dodgers win, and they do so regularly, they don't tend to win by a single run. In fact, none of their 12 victories have come with that narrow of a margin and that's with players like Mookie Betts and Max Muncy hitting below the Mendoza line.
And while I hesitate to put too much credence behind a pitcher's dominance of a particular team due to constant turnover, Urias has fared remarkably well against the Diamondbacks for his career. He owns a 1.55 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 40 2-3 innings of work. And last year, against an Arizona roster that looked mostly similar to the version being trotted out in 2022, he went 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 21 2-3 innings.
This line could move — especially with how heavily favored the Dodgers are — but take the run line as long as the value is there.
Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Urias opened the season with a bad outing in Coors Field, which was further impacted by some spotty defense that caused three of the runs scored against him to be unearned. He walked a pair and didn't record a strikeout in just two innings before getting pulled. We can give him a mulligan on that one.
Since then, the lefty has allowed one run on three hits in 10 innings across two starts while striking out 11. He did issue three walks in his last start, but his command should stabilize. He's never struggled with pitch control and walked just 1.8 batters per nine innings in 2021.
And a Diamondbacks lineup that has struggled to do any damage this season isn't likely to suddenly apply pressure against Urias. In addition to being piss poor at hitting in general, they're not applying any power when they do make contact. Arizona has a .312 slugging percentage, which is better than only the Orioles and Reds. Not great.
The Diamondbacks have already been shut out four times and held to two or fewer runs four other times. This offense stinks. And while Ketel Marte won't hit .149 and go without a home run all year long, he can't be counted on to suddenly find his stroke against Urias. Could it happen? Of course. Is it likely? Not one bit.
And if the Dodgers play it safe with Urias, whether he's pitching well or not, Los Angeles has one of the best bullpens in baseball. Dodgers relievers own a collective 2.22 ERA (second behind only the Giants) and they didn't use Craig Kimbrel or Daniel Hudson in last night's loss.
The Dodgers could win 6-1 or 7-0 and this game would still hit the Under, but it may not even be that lopsided. D-Backs starter Zac Gallen has navigated nine solid innings against a very good New York Mets lineup over his two starts, allowing just one run on four hits. The Dodgers may cause more problems with left-handed stars like Freddie Freeman and Cody Bellinger both hitting well, but Gallen can limit the damage thanks to a fastball that has been hitting 94 mph that he throws nearly 60% of the time.
So while I expect the Dodgers will win by at least two runs, it's not looking like a high-scoring contest thanks to the pitching matchup. Take the Under as long as the total is set at 8. Anything lower and you're playing with fire.
Prediction: Under 8 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
While it's tempting to take Mookie Betts to break out of his funk and go Over 1.5 bases at +120, the safer pick is Freddie Freeman to do the same at even money.
Freeman has lived up to his reputation with a .328/.403/.522 slash line and three home runs, four doubles, and a 171 wRC+ through 17 games. He's got seven multi-hit games under his belt and is always a threat to do serious damage. And unsurprisingly, Freeman feasts on right-handed pitching. In addition to him going 17-for-47 (.362) against righties to start the year, he owns a career .309 batting average against right-handers.
Pick: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks picks, you could win $62.89 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
