Dodgers vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: Sizzling Southpaw

The San Francisco Giants (4-5) finally return home after facing American League opponents in each of their first three series to start the season.

They’ll square off against the rival Los Angeles Dodgers (5-5) for the first meeting between these foes in 2023.

The Dodgers haven't been as dominant to start compared to recent seasons. Will they get above .500 on Monday? Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Giants to find out.

Dodgers vs Giants odds

Dodgers vs Giants predictions

Monday’s game features a fantastic pitching matchup between Julio Urias of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants.

Urias has pitched against the Giants 25 times in his career, including 19 starts. He’s amassed a 6-4 record in those games with a stellar 2.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 106 innings. Urias has also logged a 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at Oracle Park, which is solid production in away games against a rival.

Meanwhile, Webb has made 10 starts against the Dodgers. He's notched just a 2-4 record with a 4.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP across 50 2/3 innings. That's not exactly ideal against a division foe.

The good news for Giants fans is that Webb has typically been much more effective at home. The righty has posted a fantastic 3.01 ERA at home, but just a 4.07 on the road.

The Giants have been struggling mightily against lefties to start the year, compiling a league-low 29 wRC+ across 65 at-bats. They’ve struck out an absurdly high 40% of the time in those appearances, the highest in the league by nearly six percentage points.

It’s a small sample size, but those numbers are concerning nonetheless. If we go back to 2022 to get a larger sample, San Francisco ranked 14th in wRC+ (106) against southpaws, but the team posted the fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.8%).

I’ll be making a play on Urias’ strikeout prop on the Over on 5.5 at -138 odds. That’s the best price available, as many books are posting juiced lines in excess of -175. I would still play the number up to 6, although it’s apparent not much value will be left on the board soon. I don’t want to hand out a player prop that will be juiced beyond oblivion before the first pitch is thrown. Therefore, let’s look elsewhere for our best bet.

The Under is listed at 7.5, with the best odds available sitting at -104. That’s a much more palatable number, and it's therefore where I’ll be looking in this spot.

Urias has been dominant to start the year and faces a Giants lineup that's been the worst in the league by a mile against southpaws. Webb has been much more effective at home and clashes with a Dodgers team that's 8-3 to the Under in its last 11 games against a right-hander.

My best bet: Under 7.5 (-104 at Unibet)

Dodgers vs Giants moneyline analysis

Money quickly came in on the Dodgers after they opened at -135. Los Angeles currently resides between -140 and -155 depending on the book, while the best price on the Giants is +135 at WynnBet.

Neither team has been profitable to back in 2023. Los Angeles is 5-5 but has been the favorite in every game, meaning the Dodgers have been a losing team for bettors. San Francisco has posted a losing record at 4-5 overall. The club was favored in only three of those games — all against the Kansas City Royals — but the Giants have still been a losing squad for bettors too.

I’d be hard-pressed not to lay the money with the Dodgers in this spot. They boast the better pitcher in Urias, and he's produced a strong track record against the Giants, a team that's been struggling mightily against lefties.

Los Angeles also has a better lineup. The Dodgers have continued to rake in 2023, despite losing some of their star power from a year ago. They rank second in wRC+ (130), wOBA (.373), and OPS (.867) while behind only the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays.

Dodgers vs Giants Over/Under analysis

Just how dominant has Urias been to start the year? He’s already stymied two NL West opponents in the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, going six innings in both outings while allowing just nine total hits. He hasn’t walked a single batter and has been efficient with his pitches, averaging just 83 per outing.

Meanwhile, it’s hard to be much worse against lefties than the Giants in 2023. Here’s a lengthy list of categories they rank dead last in thus far against southpaws: strikeout rate, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They've recorded just nine hits compared to 26 strikeouts. Miserable numbers all around.

Webb’s production doesn’t look great to start the year, but both of his starts came on the road against AL teams. He’s traditionally been much better at home in his career, and now Webb gets to return to Oracle Park for a matchup against an NL West team.

While the Dodgers certainly aren't an easy matchup, it’s not unreasonable to expect a strong showing from Webb as he returns to familiar confines.

Dodgers vs Giants game info

Dodgers vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias (2-0, 1.50 ERA): Urias is off to yet another strong April after posting a 17-7 record with a stellar 2.16 ERA in 2022. His 2.08 xERA and 1.64 FIP are good indicators of impressive work after two starts. He’s allowed a barrel rate of just 3.3% while striking out 12 batters and walking none.

Logan Webb (0-2, 6.55 ERA): The ace has been enduring a rough start this season after allowing four earned runs to both the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox. He’s been rocked to the tune of a 7.1% barrel rate despite striking out a whopping 16 batters in just 11 innings while issuing just two walks. His peripherals are still strong, as his 2.88 xERA and 3.39 FIP are both well below his actual ERA.

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