Those pesky bottom feeders, the Miami Marlins, continue to make problems for the defending World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Marlins have taken the first three games of this four-game set against the Dodgers and now they’ll go for the sweep in a matinee matchup.
Can Julio Urias stop the Dodgers skid or does Sandy Alcantara give the Fish value as an underdog once again? Find out in our MLB free picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Marlins on Thursday, July 8.
Dodgers vs Marlins game info
• Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• Date: Thursday, July 8, 2021
• Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Dodgers vs Marlins odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles hit the DraftKings odds board as -165 chalk Wednesday evening, backed up to -150 this morning and is -155 at 11:40 a.m. ET today, shortly before first pitch. That said, moneyline action is still heavy to the Dodgers, with ticket count running about 4/1 and money 3/1. The total toggled between 7.5 and 7 a few times, and it's now 7.5 (Under -114), with 73 percent of bets/85 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameDodgers vs Marlins betting preview
Starting pitchers
Julio Urias (10-3, 3.81 ERA): Urias has been mostly excellent over his last 10 starts. The lefty has limited his opponents to three earned runs or fewer in eight of them. Urias has also pitched to a 1.13 WHIP and held opposing teams to a .231 batting average.
Sandy Alcantara (5-7, 2.96 ERA): One of the reasons to like what the bottom feeders are building toward is the bevy of starting pitching and Alcantara is a big part of that. The right-hander has been terrific for most of the season and bounced back from a tough outing by giving up no earned runs on five hits over six innings against the Braves.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: Corey Seager SS (Out), Victor Gonzalez RP (Out), Corey Knebel RP (Out), Tommy Kahnle RP (Out).
Marlins: John Curtiss RP (Out), Jeff Brigham RP (Out), Brian Anderson 3B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0-1 in Sandy Alcantara's last six starts as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Marlins.
Moneyline pick
The Marlins have taken three straight tight games against the Dodgers. Miami won each of the first two games by a single run before walking off Game 3 with a three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth from Jesus Aguilar. So, what does the finale have in store?
Well, for starters the starting pitching should be excellent. Julio Urias and Sandy Alcantara go head-to-head in a matchup of two of the better young starters the National League has to offer.
Urias is pitching to a 3.81 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP this season and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 17 starts. Alcantara has been even better, sporting a 2.92 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and he has given up two runs or fewer 13 times in his 18 starts.
With the starters being close to equal where is the value? Well, while the Dodgers have lost the first three games of this series, they are still scoring 5.0 runs per game over their last 10 contests and rank seventh in batting average and fourth in OPS against right-handers.
On the other hand, Miami ranks 25th in batting average and 29th in OPS when it comes to hitting against lefties.
The Marlins winning the first three games of the series looks like it has driven the price down on the favorite more than it should. Take this price and back the Dodgers.
PREDICTION: Dodgers (-145)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total it shouldn’t be surprising to see a number this low considering the quality of starters on the bump.
As we mentioned, Urias will have a chance to shut down the Marlins offense that still ranks 28th in MLB in scoring, and the Under is 10-2-1 in the Dodgers last 13 games when listed as a favorite.
While Alcantara got roughed up in his previous meeting against the Dodgers, since then he has pitched to a 2.04 ERA with the Under going 8-0-1. Bet on that trend to continue.
PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-110)
Dodgers vs Marlins betting card
- Dodgers (-145)
- Under 7.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/8/2021 at 8:40 a.m. ET
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