Dodgers vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Urias Silences San Diego Bats Yet Again

One of the best current rivalries in baseball takes place tonight at Petco Park. Los Angeles is sending southpaw Julio Urias to the mound and we like him to continue his dominance against San Diego. Find out more in our Dodgers vs. Padres picks.

Robert Criscola - Contributor at Covers.com
Robert Criscola • Publishing Editor
Apr 22, 2022 • 12:49 ET • 4 min read
Julio Urias Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NL West hostilities will be renewed as the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the San Diego Padres for the first of three games at PETCO Park on Friday night.

The Dodgers have won nine of their first 12 games of the season, and are fresh off a series victory over the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves.

After dropping to 5-5 on the campaign, the Padres have now won four in a row, having just swept the Cincinnati Reds at home. Who will draw first blood in this divisional rivalry?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Padres on Friday, April 22.

Dodgers vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened as consensus -155 moneyline favorites, and while that line has hardly budged, the total has seen significant action. After opening at 8.5 on Thursday, the total has come down to 8, with 7.5 even showing up at a couple of books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Dodgers vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 4/22/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Dodgers vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Deigo, CA
Date: Friday, April 22, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Sportsnet LA

Dodgers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias (0-1, 3.86 ERA): Julio Urias’ first two starts of 2022 contrasted sharply – he’ll look to find his footing in this one. He was chased after two innings by the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on April 10, allowing six runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks. Six days later, Urias looked dominant over five shutout innings against the Reds, limiting them to one hit and one walk with five strikeouts. The MLB leader in wins a season ago is still in search of his first winning decision this year.

Nick Martinez (0-1, 4.50 ERA): Nick Martinez makes his third start in the majors following a four-year stint with the NPB in this spot. He flummoxed the San Francisco Giants on April 11 – allowing just one run over five frames while striking out six – but was tagged by the Atlanta Braves for four runs on seven hits (three home runs) and four walks in five innings of work last Saturday. Martinez sports a 4.76 ERA over 90 career appearances (425 1-3 innings) in the MLB.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Dodgers: Gavin Lux SS (Questionable).
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS/OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 11-25 in their last 36 games vs. NL West opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres

Dodgers vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Dodgers have dominated this series of late, and they should make it 10 straight victories over the Padres on Friday night. L.A. starter Julio Urias has some incredible numbers against San Diego, going 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.956 WHIP over 37 2-3 innings dating back to 2016.

The current Padres lineup as a whole is hitting .130 over 65 at-bats against the Mexico native. Manny Machado and Wil Myers are a combined 6-for-27 (.222) all-time against Urias with only one home run. Urias also brings some strong road splits to the table, as he authored a 2.71 ERA over 103 innings as the visiting hurler a season ago.

By contrast, his 2021 home ERA was 3.27 (82 2-3 innings). Once Urias departs, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts can tap into an excellent bullpen that owns a 2.05 ERA over its last 26 1-3 innings of work. Brusdar Graterol is off to a phenomenal start, pitching 4 2-3 shutout innings with four strikeouts and a 0.857 WHIP.

There also appears to be a mismatch on the other side of the ball for the Padres, as they trot out MLB retread Nick Martinez against a dynamite L.A. lineup that’s averaging 5.33 runs per game, second in the majors.

Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman have both been swinging hot bats, as they’re tied for the team lead with seven RBIs apiece over their last seven games.

Prediction: Dodgers ML (-149 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

We’ve already discussed why San Diego will likely struggle to score, but total bettors should also be wary of how the Padres’ bullpen might impact this game. The Friars’ relievers have improved noticeably over their last seven contests, authoring a 2.05 ERA in 22 innings of work.

Steven Wilson has recorded three straight holds, blanking the opposition over 2 1-3 innings with four strikeouts. Closer Taylor Rogers has yet to allow a run in five appearances, recording the save in each instance.

The wind will be blowing in from left field at 12 mph at PETCO Park, a notoriously pitcher-friendly venue, further strengthening the argument for the Under. The trends also suggest that the Under is the right side, as the Dodgers have gone below the total in nine of their last 10 Friday games.

The Under is 19-6-1 in L.A.’s last 26 games following an off day, and 20-5-1 in the Dodgers’ last 26 Game 1s of a series. The Padres have gone below the total in five of their last six overall.

Prediction: Under 8 runs (-103 at Unibet)

Best bet

The Dodgers have owned the Padres of late, extending that dominance into San Diego. In fact, L.A. is 15-6 in their last 21 meetings with the Friars at PETCO Park.

One might think a Thursday off-day would benefit the Padres, but considering they’re dropped each of their last six games following a day of rest, that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Take the Dodgers on the moneyline at a fairly generous price on Friday night.

Pick: Dodgers ML (-149 at WynnBET)

MLB parlays

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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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