The Los Angeles Dodgers (8-0) put their unblemished record on the line as they hit the road for a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (5-1) starting on Friday.
My Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Friday, April 4 are being shaped by the starting pitchers in Game 1 in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jesus Luzardo, both of whom are coming off double-digit strikeout performances.
With the weather working in favor of these hurlers too, I'm playing the Under in this spot. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park comes at 6:45 p.m. ET on Apple TV+.
Dodgers vs Phillies prediction
My Dodgers vs Phillies best bet: Under 8 (-105 at DraftKings)
It’s still early in the season, of course, but the preliminary results from the respective starting hurlers inspire confidence heading into this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Jesus Luzardo got out to a blazing start by striking out 11 Washington Nationals last Saturday, allowing two earned on five hits and two walks across five innings.
The talent has always been there for the 27-year-old, but the health has not, so as long as he’s in the rotation (knock on wood), there’s reason for excitement.
Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto is coming off a high-K total as well, notching 10 punchouts across five innings against the Detroit Tigers.
He sports a 2.70 ERA through two starts and looks like a valuable arm yet again after finishing 2024 in the 73rd percentile in xERA and the 85th percentile in strikeout rate.
Both starters have their best stuff going early — Luzardo posted a 119 Stuff+ in his debut outing, while Yamamoto is right behind with a 117 Stuff+ (on a scale where 100 is average). While it’s too early to fully trust those numbers, keep in mind that Luzardo ranked 11th among 43 qualified starters in Stuff+ (109) in his last healthy season in 2023, while Yamamoto posted a respectable 105 Stuff+ across 90 innings a year ago.
The Phillies have several impact left-handed bats, but Yamamoto can counter that, given his severe reverse splits (.189 BA and 2.40 FIP against lefties). The right-handed Phillies bats nearly all have worrisome numbers against the splitter, Yamamoto’s deadliest offering.
Trea Turner has a 74 wRC+ against the offering in his career, while Nick Castellanos (69 wRC+) and J.T. Realmuto (47 wRC+) have been even worse. Alec Bohm’s career 139 wRC+ against the splitter looks much better until you notice he compiled most of that damage earlier in his career but hasn’t been as effective lately (43 wRC+ in 2024 and 65 wRC+ in 2023).
L.A. is off to a relatively slow start against LHP, posting a 97 wRC+, a .300 wOBA, and a .693 OPS against southpaws, and Freddie Freeman is on the 10-day IL with an ankle injury.
The weather is favorable to pitchers (60 degrees, slight wind blowing in), and the Dodgers have a fully stocked bullpen after a day’s rest.
Dodgers vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 6+ strikeouts
Dodgers moneyline
I’m not stepping in front of this train. The Dodgers have won all eight games this year, steamrolling through the Cubs, Tigers, and Braves.
Yamamoto has done nothing but impress since coming over to the U.S., and he has a fully stocked and highly effective (1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP) bullpen behind him
The 10-strikeout performance against Detroit catches the eye, but his debut against Chicago was also impressive. The 26-year-old garnered 11 whiffs on 36 swings and reached 98.1 mph with his fastball in that outing, and his 14.6% swinging strike rate on the year bodes well going forward.
The Phillies have an absurd 178 wRC+ and .425 wOBA against RHP, but take those numbers with an unusually large grain of salt. They’ve played the Nationals and Rockies so far, and the most notable right-handed starter they’ve seen is … German Marquez?
Yamamoto is in fine form to start the season and the Dodgers are playing a higher level of baseball than any other team in the majors.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Phillies odds
Dodgers vs Phillies live odds
Dodgers vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -140 | Philadelphia +120
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+120) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Dodgers vs Phillies trend
Philadelphia is 0-4 O/U in its last four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Phillies.
How to watch Dodgers vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Friday, 4-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-0, 2.70 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (1-0, 3.60 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Phillies latest injuries
Dodgers vs Phillies weather
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