A tantalizing three-game series between the Los Angeles Dodgers (55-40) and Texas Rangers (58-39) gets underway on Friday night in Arlington. This one figures to be a matchup of intrigue featuring two teams atop their respective divisions.
Looking at the MLB odds, Game 1 should be highly competitive, as it’s essentially lined as a pick ‘em.
These are two of the hottest teams in baseball — the Dodgers have won eight of their last 10 games, while the Rangers have won six straight since the All-Star Break.
Will both lineups stay hot in Game 1? I cover that in my best bet section below and provide my full MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs. Rangers on Friday, July 21.
Dodgers vs Rangers odds
Dodgers vs Rangers predictions
Game 1’s starting pitchers will be Tony Gonsolin for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Andrew Heaney for the Texas Rangers.
Gonsolin is a strange case in that his ERA is seemingly always below his xERA — usually by a full run or more. This year is no exception, as his 4.88 xERA and 4.69 FIP are both disastrous, while his 3.72 ERA isn’t nearly as bad.
There are deeper reasons for concern in 2023, as his 18.9% K-rate is five percentage points lower than it’s been since 2020, and his 8.5% barrel rate is nearly three percentage points higher than it was a year ago. It’s no wonder he ranks in just the 21st percentile in xERA/xwOBA and 25th percentile in xSLG considering he doesn’t make batters miss (15th percentile in Whiff%) and is getting barreled consistently.
This is a tough matchup against a Texas lineup that ranks second in the MLB with a 119 wRC+ against right-handers on the year. That number has been even higher lately as Bruce Bochy’s squad has notched a 134 wRC+ against right-handers in July.
Heaney, meanwhile, has struggled against the Dodgers in his career, posting a 1-2 record and 5.67 ERA across six starts. He faces a dangerous lineup that’s posted a 111 wRC+ and .334 wOBA against left-handed pitching on the year. If we isolate for recent performance, the Boys in Blue have a 117 wRC+ and .338 wOBA against southpaws since the start of July.
The 32-year-old has some other concerning metrics this year. His BB-rate (9.4%) is the highest of his 10-year career, while his K-rate (24.6%) is the lowest the second-lowest figure he’s posted since 2016. He’s allowing far too much hard contact, surrendering a gargantuan 11% barrel rate (12th percentile) while ranking in just the 18th percentile in average exit velocity.
This is a tough lineup to face when you rank in the 25th percentile in xERA/xwOBA and the 26th percentile in xSLG, as is the case with Heaney.
Given the concerning underlying metrics of both starting pitchers and the effectiveness of both lineups, I believe there are reasons to expect plenty of runs in Game 1 and will be taking the Over.
My best bet: Over 9.5 (-104 at Unibet)
Dodgers vs Rangers same-game parlay
Over 9.5
Seager 2+ total bases
Freeman 3+ total bases
The first leg of this SGP will be my best bet as outlined above — Over 9.5 on the full-game total. The first prop that I’ll add to that will be Rangers’ shortstop Corey Seager to record 2+ total bases.
This is a revenge game for the left-handed hitting Seager, who signed a 10-year, $325 million contract with Texas before the 2022 season. He’s been raking at the plate, averaging three total bases per game in his last 10 outings while clearing this bar six times.
Our third leg features Dodgers’ first basemen Freddie Freeman to record 3+ total bases. This one adds some solid juice to the SGP considering it’s a +200 prop, which brings the final SGP odds to +726.
I believe Freeman’s chances of notching 3+ total bases are better than the odds indicate considering he’s hit this mark in six of his last 10 games while averaging 3.2 total bases across that span.
He hits lefties perfectly fine and I’m not concerned about the matchup. If the game is to go Over the total as I anticipate, it’s likely that some of the more reliable bats in each lineup come through at the dish.
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Dodgers vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line is essentially a pick ‘em with -110 on both sides at most locations. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to grab the best price. Currently, the Dodgers can be had for +104, and there’s an EVEN being offered on the Rangers if you shop with a discerning eye.
The Dodgers are in a tough scheduling spot considering this will mark the third series of a nine-game, 10-day road trip. They’ve handled it well so far, taking two of three from both the Mets and the Orioles.
The Rangers, meanwhile, will be playing in their third straight series at home. They’ve been on fire to start the second half, sweeping both the Guardians and Rays. They haven’t lost since July 9.
I’m not playing a side in this contest considering both starting pitchers are unreliable, but I believe there is some slight value in the home team considering the scheduling dynamic. Bochy’s squad has been remarkably tough at home this season with a 33-18 record, while the Dodgers are just 26-24 on the road.
One area of note that keeps me away from playing the moneyline is that relief pitching has been an area of concern for Texas all year. Although Aroldis Chapman was acquired to help stem the bleeding, the results haven’t changed much since he joined the fold. They have the sixth-worst bullpen ERA at 4.42.
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Trend to know
These teams have combined to go 103-76 to the Over this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rangers
Dodgers vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Friday, July 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, BSSW |
Starting pitchers
Tony Gonsolin (5-3, 3.72 ERA): Gonsolin settled back down to Earth in his last start, holding the Mets to a single earned run and two hits across five innings. That broke an ugly spell in which he surrendered 19 earned runs across his previous four starts. The right-hander has been mightily effective on the road, posting a 2.94 ERA across 33 2/3 innings.
Andrew Heaney (6-6, 4.43 ERA): It’s a revenge game of sorts for Heaney, who pitched for the Dodgers last season. He played in Southern California for quite a while as well as a member of the Angels from 2015 to 2021. In his last three outings, he has a seven-run blow-up (three innings) sandwiched in between two scoreless appearances (combined 10 1/3 innings). The lefty’s 4.75 xERA and 5.03 FIP are both concerns.
