Dodgers vs Yankees Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Glasnow Makes Short Work of Yankees Sans Soto

Prop bet #1: Sell high on Gil

Luis Gil has been a revelation for the New York Yankees. The 26-year-old hurler has broken out in a big way, ranking second in MLB with a 1.82 ERA while compiling an 8-1 record. The Yankees righty has 85 strikeouts through 69 1/3 innings, good for an average of 11 Ks per nine. 

I’m bearish on his strikeout prop tonight, though — it’s priced up at 6.5 even though he’s gone Under that number in six of his last 10 starts. Gil’s 11.9% swinging strike rate is not otherworldly, and his 33rd percentile chase rate (26.5%) isn’t either. 

The Phenom in Pinstripes is having a fantastic start to the year, but that also means his props are priced at their zenith. The time to sell high is now. The Los Angeles Dodgers have racked up seven strikeouts against an opposing right-handed starter once in their last five games, and that was against superstar Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes. 

LA has hit righties well this season, ranking fourth in wRC+ (117) and wOBA (.330) while leading the league with a 10.3% BB%. Dave Roberts’ ballclub will be happy to make Gil work and that’s a potential hole in his game (12.6% BB%). The more they make him work, the more he labors and I don’t expect this to be another smooth outing. 

Luis Gil prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: This DJ doesn't play the hits

DJ LeMahieu has gone hitless in three of his last four games. I’m betting on him to do so yet again on Sunday in a very difficult matchup against Tyler Glasnow. 

The utility man posted just 1.3 WAR a year ago with his lowest wRC+ (101) since 2021. He’s notched just 29 plate appearances this season so the sample size is small, but early returns aren’t pretty. He’d rank near the bottom of the league in bat speed (65.7 mph) and launch angle sweet-spot percentage (23.8%) and has an xBA of just .221. 

It may be too early to tell exactly what sort of season the veteran will have, but he likely takes a step back in his age-35 season. He’s historically struggled against Glasnow and that’s enough for me to buy an Under on his hit prop. 

LeMahieu is just 4-for-20 with a .438 OPS against the tall right-hander, notching a single walk while striking out seven times. He has a .704 OPS against righties since 2022, which hardly inspires confidence.

I’ll touch more on Glasnow with my third prop of the evening, but the towering hurler has been dealing. He’s allowed four hits or fewer in four of his last five outings and his .192 xBA ranks in the 94th percentile.

DJ LeMahieu prop: Under 0.5 hits (+123 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Unbreakable Glasnow

Glasnow has been a man-possessed for the Dodgers. His first year in Southern California has been a massive success — he sports a 2.93 ERA through 13 starts and his underlying metrics are very strong (2.40 xERA, 2.70 FIP, 2.51 xFIP). 

Hitters have been unable to do any damage against his heater, batting just .185 against it with a .282 wOBA. Most of us can’t fathom trying to hit a 96 mph fastball thrown by a man who stands 6-foot-8, and big leaguers are in the same boat. 

Glasnow has been punching batters out with regularity, averaging 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings with a healthy 33.5% K rate. I don’t think those numbers are fluky and actually expect them to jump up a bit considering this is his lowest K% since 2019 and he’s pitching at an elite level. 

The flamethrower’s strikeout prop is set at 7.5 for Sunday Night Baseball. He’s exceeded that number in seven of his last eight outings while averaging 10 Ks per game. I’ll be on him staying hot and notching at least eight punchouts against a Yankees lineup that will likely be without a key piece again as Juan Soto deals with forearm inflammation. 

Soto has racked up a 191 wRC+ this season and combined with Aaron Judge (210 wRC+) to form the deadliest duo in the league. The two are responsible for most of the team’s production at the plate as no other regular has an OPS over .781. The Yanks have scored just four runs through the first two games of the series with their star sidelined. 

His likely absence is a major one, and I’m bullish on Glasnow’s props as a response. Soto avoids strikeouts (16.6% K%) and draws walks (15.9% BB%) with the best of them, and a shorthanded lineup without him won’t be ready to carry the water. 

Tyler Glasnow prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+115 at bet365)