The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants will open a three-game series tonight at Truist Park. The Braves are currently -220 home faves and are 6-1 in their last two series, including a three-game sweep of the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Giants enter 1.5 games up in the second Wild Card spot.
With strikeout issues of their own and now facing the best K% pitcher in baseball, should bettors continue to fade a Giants offense that has returned a 34% profit for team total Unders over the last 44 games?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Braves for Friday, August 18.
Giants vs Braves odds
Giants vs Braves predictions
The San Francisco Giants have the worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days and that may be lost on bettors as this is currently a playoff team that sits second in the NL West. It’s also an offense that strikes out at a high rate (25%) and has to face the best strikeout pitcher in baseball today.
Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider leads the MLB in punchouts and is striking out 38% of the batters he’s facing. He’s been better at home, boasting a 120:17 K:BB rate in 71-plus innings, and hitters are batting just .214 off of the starter. While Strider is prone to giving up the long ball, the Giants rank in the Bottom 10 of the league in home runs hit (29th over the last 30 days).
San Francisco is one of the best Under teams in baseball thanks to its low-scoring ways. The Giants team total Unders have been a goldmine for bettors of late as San Francisco is 13-31 O/U on its TT Over its last 44 games for +16.89 units and a +34% ROI.
With the Giants team total listed at 3.5 for tonight, four runs is a lot to ask for an offense that has scored more than three runs just once over its last seven games.
My best bet: Giants team total Under 3.5 (-118 at Caesars)
Giants vs Braves same-game parlay
Giants team total u3.5
Strider o8.5 strikeouts
Cobb o4.5 strikeouts
The Giants' offense has been horrendous in the summer months. It's simply a bad matchup for a K-heavy team tonight against an electric right-hander who strikes out more batters than anyone in baseball. Strider is projected to punch out 8.69 batters today, so the Over on his K prop has an above 50% probable win percentage at even money.
Meanwhile, Alex Cobb's Over 4.5 strikeouts prop really boosts this SGP. Considering the Giants right-hander projects for 4.69 Ks and is paying +135, that's 20% EV.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Giants vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Braves opened as -210 home favorites and moved to -225 overnight. Considering their 40-20 record at home and 19-5 record when Strider starts, the move is warranted.
The Giants have really overachieved this season. They have taken advantage of their decent pitching in a non-hitter's park at home, and have somehow scraped together a 35-29 record vs. winning teams.
This is the worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days in terms of wRC+, wOBA, and WAR. They’re also a heavy K% team, sitting fourth on the year at 25%. That makes for a tough matchup against the best strikeout pitcher in baseball.
That has correlated to some low-scoring games for the second-place Giants, as they are 50-68 O/U on the year and have hit the team total under in 31 of their last 44 games.
On the other side, the Braves offense ranks No.1 on the season, averaging a whopping 5.9 runs a game. Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is still out, but reigning NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II has filled in nicely and is hitting .333 in the month of August.
The Giants have won 15 of Alex Cobb’s 22 starts this year but he’s seen his ERA rise over the last three starts where he has allowed six home runs which is worrisome as he had allowed just eight homers in his previous 19 starts.
The total has hit 9 after opening at 8.5, but my most confident play is on the Giants team total Under 3.5 at decent -118 odds. Even if Strider gets into trouble, he can bail himself out with the strikeout as the Giants have been piling them up of late.
There is not a lot to like about this San Francisco offense, and bettors who are thinking about hitting the Over 8.5 or 9, should possibly pivot to the Braves’ team total Over 4.5. Atlanta has hit the Over on their team total in 36 of its last 53 games for a +26% ROI.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet loses at BetMGM! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The San Francisco Giants have hit the team total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+16.89 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Braves
Giants vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Friday, August 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Southeast |
Starting pitchers
Alex Cobb (6-4, 3.62 ERA): Cobb will be making his 23rd start of the year and carries a 110-32 K:BB rate over 121 innings with 14 home runs allowed and a 3.84 FIP. He’s a severe groundball pitcher (56.6%) and is averaging just over 15 outs and 86 pitches per start over his last 10 starts. The Giants are 15-7 when Cobb takes the rubber and THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 16 outs, 4.69 strikeouts, and 3.11 earned runs tonight.
Spencer Strider (13-4, 3.75 ERA): Strider is making his 25th start and is currently listed at +700 for NL Cy Young odds. He leads the MLB in strikeouts and owns an insane 38% K%. The right-hander also has a 3.26 ERA over his last 10 starts where he is averaging over 18 outs and 98 pitches per start. THE BAT is projecting 102 pitches, 18.1 outs, 8.69 strikeouts, and 2.32 earned runs from Strider this evening.
