One of the better games on Saturday’s MLB slate features two winning NL teams as the San Francisco Giants (64-58) and Atlanta Braves (79-42) square off for Game 2 of a three-game series.
Atlanta took Friday's Game 1 by a score of 4-0 as Spencer Strider dominated the visitors, allowing just a single hit and no earned runs while striking out 10 batters in seven innings.
San Francisco is currently a half-game up for the second NL Wild Card but will need to stay vigilant in what forecasts to be a close race — the Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins also have 64 wins.
I’ve got my eye on one starting pitcher’s props for Game 2’s best bet. Check out which one I’ve selected and stay tuned for my full MLB picks and predictions for the Giants vs. Braves on Saturday, August 19.
Giants vs Braves odds
Giants vs Braves predictions
For Saturday’s best bet, we’re going to take a closer look at one of Atlanta starter Yonny Chirinos’ player props. He gets a juicy matchup against a lineup that has struggled all season long, and especially of late.
Gabe Kapler’s side has gone ice-cold at the plate, sporting a 56 wRC+ and .251 wOBA across its last 10 games. Only the downward-spiraling Los Angeles Angels have been worse in both categories during that span.
They have particularly struggled to get things going against right-handed pitching in that stretch, notching a 43 wRC+ and .231 wOBA. Both numbers rank dead last in the big leagues.
So what’s gone wrong? Well, how much time do you have? The short answer is everything.
J.D. Davis has just one hit in his last 30 at-bats. LaMonte Wade’s last hit was on August 11 as he’s on an 0-for-18 stretch. Brandon Crawford has one hit since August 5 (a 1-for-31 slump). And Patrick Bailey hit the rookie wall hard, lowering his OPS from 1.020 near the end of May to .725 at present.
If you zoom out and examine the Giants’ season-long performance at the dish, it’s easy to note that they’ve been prone to the punchout. They’re tied for the second-highest K-rate (26.9%) against right-handers in away games this season.
Chirinos’ strikeout prop is set at just 3.5 on Saturday and there’s plus money being offered on the Over. That’s tempting to me considering he faces off against a lineup that has been putrid at the plate lately and is very prone to the strikeout against righties. Chirinos has actually notched exactly five punchouts in each of his last three starts and I think he has a strong chance of a similar output today even if he's on a short leash.
You’d have to go back to August 6 to find the last time a right-handed starting pitcher notched fewer than four strikeouts against San Francisco. Since then, there have been notable performances like Dane Dunning’s 12 Ks and Spencer Strider’s 10 Ks just yesterday.
Chirinos is hardly a world-beater, but you don’t have to be in order to clear this low bar against a struggling lineup.
My best bet: Yonny Chirinos Over 3.5 strikeouts (+135 at bet365)
Giants vs Braves same-game parlay
Yonny Chirinos Over 3.5 strikeouts (+135)
Logan Webb Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Webb NOT to record the win (-210)
Saturday’s SGP will be a three-legger featuring all pitcher props. The first will be my best bet on Chrinos’ strikeout prop as outlined above.
The next leg is taking Giants ace Logan Webb to go Under his 4.5 strikeout prop. Webb’s strikeouts are up this season as he’s gone from a 20.7% K-rate a year ago to 24.4% in 2023. However, he still doesn’t exactly have the profile of a punchout-heavy pitcher, given his 16th percentile Whiff% and first percentile fastball spin rate. His swinging strike rate is actually down to 9% this season from 10.6% last year and 10.3% for his career.
Webb has always been more effective at home (2.76 career ERA) than on the road (4.10 ERA). He has some noticeable splits in regard to strikeouts as well, as his career K-rate dips from 24.4% at home to 21.4% on the road. Atlanta has been difficult to strike out, posting an 18.9% K-rate against right-handers across its last 10 games.
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Giants vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Looking at MLB odds, the Braves are a slight favorite at home, sitting at -120 across most books. The best comeback available on the Giants is +102.
The total is set at 9.5 across most locations, although 9 is also available if you scour our MLB odds board.
I’m not making a play on the side or the total as I consider this to be a highly volatile matchup. Chirinos has been terrible on the mound lately but matches up with an equally discouraging San Francisco lineup that looks like it should be playing in the Little League World Series instead of MLB. Webb is a solid pitcher who gives his team the starting pitching advantage, but he faces off with a death star of an Atlanta lineup.
Atlanta has been on fire at the dish, pacing the Majors with a 142 wRC+ and .385 wOBA across their last 10 games. This lineup will naturally prove a tough test for Webb as they’ve posted a 137 wRC+ and .379 wOBA against right-handers in that span,
It’s weakness on weakness on one side and strength on strength on the other. Atlanta has been the much better team this season and has a more trustworthy bullpen by a hair, but it’s not in my wheelhouse to lay any sort of juice when a team is at this big of a starting pitching disadvantage.
Weather should not be a factor with a temperature of 85 degrees and winds of just 5.8 mph blowing to the first-base stands.
Chasing Unders in Braves games has been a penniless endeavor — they’ve cashed the Under in just 23 of their last 58 home games and that’s good for a -23% ROI. I lean toward the Over if playing the total.
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Trend to know
Chirinos has notched more than 3.5 strikeouts in each of his last three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Braves
Giants vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, August 19, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, BSSE |
Starting pitchers
Logan Webb (9-9, 3.26 ERA): San Francisco’s ace has been solid again this season in what’s been a successful three-year stretch. There’s a reason the front office wanted to assure his long-term services and inked him to a five-year, $90 million extension back in April. He’s surrendered just two earned runs across 14 2/3 IP in his last two stars.
Yonny Chirinos (5-5, 5.22 ERA): Chirinos has been hit hard lately, surrendering 12 earned runs across his last two starts (9 2/3 IP). The 29-year-old’s peripherals are downright unseemly — he sports a 6.09 xERA and 5.45 FIP. He doesn’t strike people out (14.1% K-rate) and allows a lot of hard contact (9% barrel rate), so it’s not a mystery why he’s struggled.
