The first installment of this four-game NL West series gets underway Thursday evening with the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the third-place San Francisco Giants.
Los Angeles has already convincingly clinched the division title while San Francisco continues to fight for its playoff lives, trailing the Chicago Cubs by three games for the final wild card spot.
Will the Giants close the gap on the division leaders, or can the Dodgers play spoiler on their diamond? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Dodgers on Thursday, September 21.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
Left-hander Kyle Harrison takes the mound for the San Francisco Giants and could be a good candidate to back in this contest. Through five starts this season, the rookie hurler is 1-1 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
While those are certainly not stellar stats, they are weighed down by an especially poor performance against the Padres back on September 2 — a game in which Harrison surrendered six runs on six hits through 5 2/3 innings pitched. Over his other four starts, the southpaw is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA.
Tonight, we should trust Harrison's ability to rack up the strikeouts in this contest.
That is the one area where Harrison has looked the most impressive, ranking well above the league average in K%, Whiff%, and Chase%. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 4.5 a number — he has surpassed in four of his first five career starts.
We are catching a generous number because the Los Angeles Dodgers boast one of the best lineups in baseball. Entering this series, they rank in the Top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
All that said, the Dodgers remain vulnerable at striking out when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. Additionally, nobody in this Los Angeles lineup has ever faced Harrison before, so it may take a few rotations through the order to figure him out.
This gives us plenty of time for the left-hander to record at least five strikeouts.
My best bet: Kyle Harrison Over 4.5 strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel)
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Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Kyle Harrison Over 4.5 strikeouts (-118)
Under 8.5 (-102)
Giants moneyline (+152)
Another rookie takes the mound in this contest — right-hander Emmet Sheehan. He has also had a very strong rookie campaign that has been overshadowed by only a couple of bad outings.
Therefore, the right-hander's surface-level stats are inflated, but his performance has been better than his 5.44 ERA and 1.27 WHIP suggest. Sheehan has allowed just two or fewer runs in four of his past five outings.
With that said, Harrison profiles similarly and has also looked strong for the most part. In a possible low-scoring game, I like San Francisco’s chances at what appears to be an inflated price in a game that could be decided by one run.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers opened as a –180 favorite and remain at that price at the time of writing. If the market moves this line, I only suspect it will tilt in Los Angeles’ direction, given the public's habit of placing late action on the Dodgers.
If that line shrinks, then it is more likely than not that respected money is coming in on San Francisco. That brings us to the total, which opened at 9.0 and has since been bet down to 8.5.
I am a bit surprised that the market moved it that way, considering there are two inexperienced rookies dueling it out with poor surface-level stats and a game that features a powerhouse Dodgers offense. However, the market appears to agree with me on how the eye test is far more impressive with Harrison and Sheehan than their stats would suggest.
Trend to know
Harrison has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
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Giants vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, September 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, SporstNet Los Angeles |
Starting pitchers
Kyle Harrison (1-1, 5.18 ERA): A disastrous outing against the Padres really hurts the appearance of Harrison’s rookie campaign thus far, as the left-hander allowed six runs against their NL West rivals. Over his other four starts, the left-hander is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. His best asset appears to be the punchout, ranking above the league average in K%, Whiff%, and Chase%.
Emmet Sheehan (3-1, 5.44 ERA): Sheehan profiles similarly to Harrison — a promising young rookie whose stats appear worse than they are due to a couple of outlier outings. Not only has Sheehan allowed two or fewer runs in four of his past five outings, but he ranks in the 73rd percentile or higher in both xERA and xBA.
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