The New York Mets will take on the San Francisco Giants in game three of a four-game series Thursday night. It's been a series of sexy pitching matchups so far and once again, tonight is no exception.
The Mets swept yesterday's double-header in a pair of games that featured late-game heroics and Mets Ace Max Scherzer flirting with a no-hitter. The Giants will now be hoping to rebound after two straight losses and falling to 7-4.
Who wins game three of this series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Giants on Tuesday, April 19.
Giants vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Opening odds for tonight's matchup were released late last night. For the first time in the series, the Giants opened up as a favorite at -115, and the Mets returned at -105. Since then, the Giants have taken some money and went to -120 at most locations. The one oddity is that the Wynn Sportsbook has seen the Mets go from -105 to -110. It's another low opening total at a flat 7.0. It has stayed put at that number across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Giants vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 4/20/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
• Date: Wednesday, April 20, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Giants vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Carlos Rodon (1-0, 1.50 ERA): You could write similar things about Rodon that I wrote about Webb yesterday. Another starter had one of the best years of his career and quietly put up Cy Young-worthy numbers. The key and most obvious difference is he did it with a different team, the Chicago White Sox. His injury history notes how incredibly of a volatile pitcher he can be, but when he's on, he's on. He's started 2022 leading the MLB in strikeouts per 9 innings with 15.8.
Chris Bassitt (2-0, 0.75 ERA): Yesterday, I wrote that Mets ace Max Scherzer might not be the best pitcher on the Mets. The guy I was referring to may have overtaken that title? This guy. At least so far. Bassitt has started off his 2022 campaign looking flawless and has quietly been one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons posting a strong 17-6 record with a 2.9 ERA last year. He relies on a sinker, fastball, and a high strikeout rate to get the job done.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Giants: Evan Longoria 3B (Out), Logan Wade Jr. LF (Out), Tommy La Stella 2B (Out).
Mets: Mark Canha RF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Giants last six games as road favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Mets.
Giants vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Eventually, the Giants have to break through here, right? I made the mistake of going against Scherzer yesterday and was one or two Giants mishaps away from being right. I suppose I haven't learned my lesson because I'll be backing them again on the moneyline today.
The heavy analytical side of my brain will win the argument on the handicap here. And that serious analytical side of my brain? It says that Bassitt is due for a stinker of a game. In his career, he is averaging a barrel rate of about 5.4% and about a home run per every nine innings of baseball. That loosely translates out to an ERA of 3.41, a number that is well above where he has been so far this season.
In addition to that, Bassitt has given up just one home run up to this point and has posted a barrel rate of about 2%. Simple logic would suggest that it's time for him to return to who he has been throughout his career.
On the flip side, the Giants lineup seems well equipped to take advantage of Bassitt and his suspect barrel rate. Last season they finished sixth in baseball in Barrels Per Plate appearances among qualified hitters. They seem prime to finish near the top this season and are currently fourth in that category.
Bassitt didn't face the Giants last season, but he did face the Houston Astros, who ranked slightly behind them in Barrels Per Plate. Those outings featured his worst appearance of the season when he gave up six earned runs in 4 1-3 innings.
Collectively he was 0-1 against them with an ERA of around five and a below-average WHIP. Coincidence? This, combined with my calculated 10% model edge on this game, leads me to an easy choice: I'll take the Giants.
Prediction: Giants moneyline (-110 at Wynn)
Over/Under analysis
Even though I've spoken in-depth about the risk of Bassitt having a bad outing, I still have to go with the Under here.
Conditions at Citi Field have produced lower scoring games in the first two tilts of this series, and it's hard to see that being much different in this one. You are getting cold temperatures here to reduce the ball's carry and you're also getting winds blowing in to minimize the carry of two pitchers that will likely produce a significant amount of fly-balls.
It's hard to imagine many scenarios where this one goes Over. Even if Bassitt has a bad outing, Rodon is well poised to back up dominance on the mound and assist in keeping the total down.
Prediction: Under 7 (-120 at Wynn)
Best bet
One of my favorite bets in this game is the Giants moneyline because of the pitching advantage. So why not isolate this matchup even further?
Although the Giants have lost in the first five innings both times this series, they went 2-0-1 in that same frame in their season series sweep against the Guardians. And as mentioned before, I feel it's only a matter of time before the Giants start to put things back together.
Also in his last two outings, Carlos Rodon has looked spectacular coming out of the gate giving up just two runs with one of them not coming until his seventh inning against the Guardians. If he can keep up that stellar pitching and can get some help from his bats, San Fran will be in a great position to take an early lead.
Give me the Giants first five today because eventually, regression always occurs, and San Francisco looks primed to provide that regression.
Pick: Giants first five innings (-120 at FanDuel)
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