The San Francisco Giants will go for the four-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds when they face off in a matinee matchup at the Great American Ball Park.
The Giants send former Red Johnny Cueto to the mound for the finale, while Cincy counters with right-hander Tyler Mahle in hopes of salvaging the final game of this series. Can Cueto complete the sweep and get the job done for the underdogs?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Giants vs. Reds on Thursday, May 20, with first pitch scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET.
Giants vs Reds game info
• Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Thursday, May 20, 2021
• Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
• TV: YouTube
Giants vs Reds odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel pegged Cincinnati a -138 favorite at Wednesday evening's outset, stretched to -154, dipped to -132 and rebounded to -146, all by this morning. As of 11:45 a.m. ET, it's Cincy -144, with 59 percent of moneyline bets on the Giants and 53 percent of moneyline dollars on the Reds. The total toggled between 8.5 and 9 a few times and is now 8.5 (Over -115), with the Under taking 80 percent of bets/62 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameGiants vs Reds betting preview
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto (2-1, 3.62 ERA): Cueto has looked a little rusty in his first two starts since coming off the IL for a lat strain, surrendering seven runs on 16 hits in 7 1-3 innings. The former All-Star was off to a solid start prior to the injury which included a solid start against this same Reds team.
Tyler Mahle (2-1, 2.93 ERA): Mahle has been a pleasant surprise for the Reds rotation this season. The right-hander is pitching to the best ERA and WHIP of his career and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts this season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Giants: Brandon Belt 1B (Questionable), Tommy La Stella 2B (Out), Reyes Moronta RP (Out), Jose Alvarez RP (Out).
Reds: Nick Senzel CF (Questionable), Mike Moustakas 3B (Questionable), Joey Votto 1B (Out), Michael Lorenzen RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Giants are 6-1 in their last seven games versus a right-handed starter while the Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 home games against a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Reds.
Moneyline pick
The San Francisco Giants have been one of the biggest surprises through the first part of this 2021 Major League season. At 27-16, the Giants not only lead the National League West, but they also have the best record in all of baseball and now they go for the sweep of the Cincinnati Reds.
The Giants have been able to win all these games thanks to some excellent pitching, strong defense, and timely hitting, which has been the case in this series against the Reds. They have gotten at least six innings from each starter in this series while outscoring Cincinnati 14-5 over the first three games.
So, the question is, can Johnny Cueto keep up the strong starting performances? While he has struggled since coming off the IL, prior to that, he had a 1.80 ERA and limited opponents to a .190 batting average. That includes pitching 5 2-3 innings of three-hit, shutout ball against this same Reds team back on April 14.
And the Reds were swatting the ball with a lot more gusto back in April. On top of that, they have struggled against better teams, plating just 11 runs in their last seven games against teams with winning records.
Mix in the injuries the Reds are dealing with and it’s hard not to like the value with the Giants as underdogs in this one.
PREDICTION: Giants (+120)
Over/Under pick
The early money on the total has come in on the Over ,but the number is now high enough to look at the other side. First of all, the Under is 4-2 in the six games these two teams have played this season, seeing an average of 6.33 total runs over those contests.
Second, as noted, the Reds have not been as potent at the plate against winning teams, scoring just 1.57 runs per game in their last seven against teams with winning records, and they could be missing all three of Nick Senzel, Mike Moustakas, and Joey Votto for this one. That’s a lot of production to replace.
Meanwhile, the Reds should feel confident with Mahle on the mound. The right-hander has been reliable all season, limiting opponents to a .217 batting average, and now faces a Giants team that does not hit for a great average. This game is a good bet to sneak below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 9 (-110)
Giants vs Reds betting card
- Giants (+120)
- Under 9 (-110)
Picks made on 5/19/2021 at 11:45 p.m. ET
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