The Cleveland Guardians will look to heap more misery on the Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s matchup — and they wasted no time making themselves at home at PNC Park last night.
The Guardians, brushing off a four-game skid, thumped the Pirates 11-0 in the series opener behind homers from Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, and Josh Naylor, edging to within 1.5 games of the Twins for the AL Central lead.
That made it four straight losses for Pittsburgh, with that blowout coming on the heels of a weekend sweep at the hands of the Giants, and top starter Mitch Keller is tasked with righting the ship tonight.
Find out more in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Pirates on July 18.
Guardians vs Pirates odds
| Cleveland Guardians | Pittsburgh Pirates | |
|---|---|---|
| -110 | Moneyline | -110 |
| +1.5 (-210) | Run line | -1.5 (+175 |
| Over 8.5 (-115) | Total | Under 8.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 18, 2023.
Guardians vs Pirates predictions
When Josh Naylor is in a groove, he’s among the league’s most dangerous hitters — and that’s exactly what we’ve seen this month, with the 26-year-old starring for Cleveland in the clean-up spot.
His average has soared to .310 after going 14-for-32 over the past eight contests, and he served up more fireworks last night with three RBI, including a dinger off Pirates debutant Quinn Priester. His hit streak is now at eight games — five of those have been multi-hit outings, and he’s crushed four doubles over that span.
Though it’s fair to expect tougher at-bats tonight against Keller, I’m riding with Naylor again given the way he’s currently swinging the bat. He’s produced 36 of his 66 RBI on the road this year and he’s mashing righties for a .323 average this year.
The Guardians have their eyes on the top spot in the AL Central, and I’m taking these MLB odds for Naylor to lead the way again.
My best bet: Josh Naylor Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
Guardians vs Pirates same-game parlay
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Over 8.5 (-115)
Mitch Keller Over 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
I’m taking the Josh Naylor prop and building this SGP for what I expect to be a high-scoring contest. Even in their weekend sweep at the hands of the Rangers, the Guardians put runs on the board and their lineup can drag the total towards the Over, even if the Pirates struggle again at the plate.
Give me the Over on Keller's strikeouts too. He’s coming over the thrill of his first All-Star appearance, he should be more rested, and he’s racked up five or more Ks in five of his last six starts.
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Guardians vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Despite Pittsburgh’s rough stretch (2-8 in its last 10 contests), tonight’s battle feels like a coin flip — and the even odds reflect that.
As much as the Pirates’ lineup has struggled this month, Keller is in the midst of a strong season and boasts a 3.31 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. On paper, the pitching matchup tilts firmly towards the hosts, with the Guardians’ injury woes prompting a call-up for rookie lefty Logan Allen.
While Cleveland has won seven of the past 10 meetings between these teams, the bullpen had a busy night yesterday and Allen’s past three starts have all lasted four innings or fewer. Still, the offensive outburst in the series opener was a good sign for the visitors, who piled up 12 hits.
When it comes to the Over/Under, it’s hard to overlook Pittsburgh’s shortcomings at the plate. The Pirates haven’t scored more than four runs in any of their last nine games and were shut out last night by the Guardians’ bullpen.
If you’re taking the Over, it’s probably in part because of Cleveland’s dangerous hitters — and three of the Guardians’ past four games have featured 11 or more runs. Allen’s inexperience could also open the door for Pittsburgh’s offense to get going at last.
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Trend to know
While the Pirates’ offense hasn’t always made big contributions on the scoreboard, the Over is 9-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 11 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Pirates
Guardians vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T Pittsburgh, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
Starting pitchers
Logan Allen (3-2, 3.47 ERA): With injuries derailing the Cleveland rotation, Allen is back from Triple-A Columbus. He’s only made 12 career starts but brings a solid 3.47 ERA and the Guardians have won each of the last six games in which he’s pitched — most recently, 3 2/3 innings and five Ks in a 14-1 victory over the Royals.
Mitch Keller (9-4, 3.31 ERA): Keller has been lights out this season, earning an All-Star nod while holding right-handers to a .204 average. His ERA is an eye-catching 2.63 at PNC Park in 2023 and he’s coming off seven scoreless innings of work against the Diamondbacks in his last start. The only question mark is whether the All-Star break will have disrupted his rhythm.
