There's no better way to spend your weekend of MLB betting than cheering for home run props, and BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot has made hitting your dinger bets potentially even more profitable.
Every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, if your first bet (of $10 or more) on a player to hit a home run hits a grand slam that day... you win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot — in addition to BetMGM having among the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Brent Rooker, A's (+475 at BetMGM)
Somehow, someway, the Oakland A's led the MLB in home runs in July, with Brent Rooker spearheading the offense.
The Oakland cleanup hitter posted a .391 average with 11 HR and a 49% flyball rate in July. He hit .386 with eight of his HR coming against right-handed pitchers, which is important as he will face Dodgers righty Gavin Stone, who has surrendered a homer in four straight games and six of his last eight outings.
Stone has also posted a heinous 1.93 WHIP over the last month, meaning there should be plenty of runners on base, and he's followed by a bullpen that has coughed up the third-most home runs in that span.
Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers (+650 at BetMGM)
No, this isn't deja vu from last week, the Texas Rangers again have a juicy pitching matchup tonight, and Nate Lowe is again in a good position to cash in.
Texas will face the Boston Red Sox and righty Kutter Crawford, who has given up an MLB-worst 17 home runs since June 1, including a whopping eight long balls in his last two outings.
Lowe, the Texas No. 6 hitter, is batting .297 with three homers against righties over the last month and is up to .368 against RHP over his last six games. His HR price in general is also appealing, but if that's too much of a long shot for you, newly-minted No. 3 hitter Marcus Semien (+500) has also been hot against righties as of late.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Bronx bombing
We have a matchup between the Nos. 1 and 2 in the Majors for HR allowed on Saturday with Jose Berrios vs. Carlos Rodon, but as the Blue Jays traded 3/4 of their roster away... we're better served looking towards the New York Yankees.
The obvious option is No. 3 hitter (and MLB HR leader) Aaron Judge, who is destroying everything and everyone. Newcomer Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is 7-for-19 with four HR in his first four games as a Yankees and has settled in the five-hole, is also an interesting option.
Finally, forgive me for omitting Juan Soto: He's a clear choice for just betting on a home run... but we out here hunting slams, so I'd look at cleanup hitter Giancarlo Stanton who can, well, do this on any given swing and already has a salami against the Jays this season.
Possible Picks: Judge > Chisholm > Stanton
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Deep ball fishing
The Miami Marlins are expected to trot out righty Edward Cabrera on Sunday, and things have not been pretty for him of late: He gave up seven homers in 22 July innings with a 1.50 WHIP also signaling that there's been plenty of traffic on the basepaths as well.
That should pose a good matchup for Atlanta Braves No. 3 hitter Marcell Ozuna, who is hitting .293 with five HR vs. righties over the last two weeks, while Eddie Rosario, generally slotting in sixth in the order, has three HR and a 58% flyball rate against righties over that span.
If backup catcher Travis d'Arnaud is in the lineup, he would be an interesting choice, as he likely plugs in fifth in the lineup and is hitting .421 with two HR in just 19 ABs against RHP over the last 14 days, with a 40% FB rate.
Possible picks: Ozuna > Rosario > d'Arnaud
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through July 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.54%), followed by the No. 7 hitter (11.63%). The cleanup spot is third at 10.94%, just barely ahead of the No. 5 spot (10.79%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.93%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 5), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have two of the three worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
