It might be the end of the work week, but it’s the start of BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot!
There’s not much to it. All you have to do is place a wager of $10 or more on a player to hit a home run on Friday through Sunday, and you’ll win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot if he hits a grand slam that day.
It’s an especially sweet deal since BetMGM already has some of the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals (+600 at BetMGM)
Vinnie Pasquantino ranks inside the Top 20 for the most home runs hit during the last 30 days, going yard seven times, most recently in K.C.’s previous set against the Cincinnati Reds.
The Kansas City Royals' first baseman's best hitting split is at home, where he’s averaging .290. Pasquantino has a .460 slugging percentage, with 14 of his 18 homers on the year against right-handed pitchers.
The left-handed batter is facing Philadelphia Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, who has been getting drilled of late. Walker surrendered a pair of homers last time out against the Nationals, and he’s served up dingers in four straight games with a total of seven long balls.
In just 12 starts on the year, Walker has allowed 15 home runs, and has kept it in the yard in just two appearances this season.
Aaron Judge, Yankees (+175 at BetMGM)
Aaron Judge was judge, jury, and executioner in the New York Yankees' series win over the Guardians. He homered in all three games (four in total), upping his MLB-leading total to 48. He gets to tee off again in the Bronx — the ballpark that has surrendered the third-most home runs on the year (118) — as the Yankees host the Colorado Rockies.
Judge draws lefty Kyle Freeland, who is coming off an eight-hit, five-earned run thumping at the hands of the Padres. Freeland has also allowed seven home runs in his last eight starts. Judge feasts on left-handed pitching, hitting .308 with an absurd .740 slugging percentage and 13 homers.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Braves take Jake deep
Jake Irvin didn’t figure in the decision in his last start, where Washington managed to win despite Irvin getting taken yard three times.
He’s been taken deep seven times in his last three starts and 11 times in his last 13 appearances. His 24 homers allowed is tied for fifth-most in the majors.
Now he’s onto Truist Park, facing a Braves’ squad that currently ranks fourth in the majors in home runs while already drilling three grand slams on the season.
The Braves have yet to take Irvin yard in two games this season and three games overall, but the Nationals’ righty has surrendered 15 home runs in visitors parks this season, the most in any of his splits.
Possible picks: Marcell Ozuna > Matt Olson > Austin Riley
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Petco project
Jose Quintana has yet to win in four August starts, and the Mets southpaw is sporting a large 8.27 ERA in that sample. Quintana’s 22 dingers allowed currently ranks 12th, and he’s served up nine home runs over his last seven starts.
He’s in San Diego for his next start and Petco Park has been surprisingly generous to hitters, surrendering 102 long balls on the year, inside the Top 15. The Padres have also been able to clear the bases with four grand slams on the season.
Righties have been hitting Quintana especially well, batting .244 with 16 home runs and 48 RBI.
Possible picks: Manny Machado > Xander Bogaerts > Jurickson Profar
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through July 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.54%), followed by the No. 7 hitter (11.63%). The cleanup spot is third at 10.94%, just barely ahead of the No. 5 spot (10.79%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.93%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 5), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have two of the three worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
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