Tuesdays are for betting on home run props.
The unofficial-official day to bet on MLB player props for homers is the middle of the week — with several sportsbooks offering specific betting promotions related to long balls.
However, none are as popular as FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday, where for two different games, you place a $25 bet on a player to hit a home run and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game (regardless of who hits 'em).
I'll break down the best games to target, including a starting pitcher breakdown and best player values, for Dinger Tuesday tonight, June 11.
Best home run props and odds for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ball Park, 7:10 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
 Triston McKenzie (RHP) |
3.7 | 29.0 | 53.4 |
 Brent Suter (LHP - Opener) |
1.6 | 18.2 | 28.2 |
Let's not dwell much on Suter, who will serve as an opener today. I'm expecting Nick Martinez to be the bulk guy, and the righty has a 43% fly-ball rate over the last month, with just two HR allowed in his last five outings as he excels at minimizing hard contact allowed. However, he has let lefty hitters touch him up, particularly against his cutter.
However, the reason I'm targeting this game is Triston McKenzie, who has gotten hammered recently, coughing up a whopping eight dingers in his last three starts (15 1/3 innings). There's no real platoon split — he's getting smoked from both sides, with his fastball being the primary culprit.
This is also the highest upgraded park for home runs today, per Ballpark Pal, so it adds even more appeal.
Hitters to target - Guardians
* = best price available
- *Jose Ramirez, SH (+400) - Team-leading nine HR last 30 days, with a 52% FB rate and .337 average.
- David Fry, RH (+450) - Hitting a team-high .367 with six HR (second on team) over last 30 days.
- Josh Naylor, LH (+360) - Hitting just .135 over the last month, but is third on the team with five HR.
- Andres Gimenez, LH (+520) - Has an xBA of .295 and .347 vs. FB/CH from righties — which are the two main pitches Martinez throws to southpaw hitters.
Hitters to target - Reds
- *Jeimer Candelario, SH (+480) - Hitting .281 with team-high five HR off RHP the past month, including two homers in last five games.
- *Will Benson, LH (+600) - Has a 41% FB and four HR off righties L30, with five of his seven HR vs. RHP coming via fastball.
- Tyler Stephenson, RH (+520) - Team-leading .302 average vs. RHP over last month, also hits FB very well (.313 xBA)
- *Elly De La Cruz, SH (+470) - Does all his damage vs. FB and has hits in five straight games vs. righty SP (incl. two HR).
Best betting value: Elly De La Cruz (+470 at FanDuel)
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Place a wager of $25 or more on a player to hit a home run bet, get $5 for every homer hit in that game — available for two different games!
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Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers (Dodger Stadium, 10:10 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dane Dunning (RHP) |
2.0 | 23.1 | 34.2 |
 James Paxton (LHP) |
2.3 | 22.2 | 36.0 |
Dunning, while not confirmed yet, is expected to start and has given up three homers in his last two starts. His barrel and hard-hit rates rank among the worst pitchers in baseball, with lefties accounting for most of his long balls.
On the other side, Paxton hasn't allowed a homer in two straight starts... but he also pitched a total of 4 2/3 innings in those outings. He yielded two long balls in both of his two starts prior, with righties accounting for all the HR damage against him — with his fastball and cutter being the culprits.
Hitters to target - Rangers
* = best price available
- Marcus Semien, RH (+560) - Hitting .407 with two HR and 50% FB rate off southpaws the last 30 days, crushes FB from lefties.
- Adolis Garcia, RH (+340) - 53% FB rate and two HR off LHP over last month, with five HR overall during that span.
- Jonah Heim, SH (+520) - Also has a 50% fly-ball rate off lefties during this span, hits in four of last five games overall, hits FB from LHP well.
- Corey Seager, LH (+430) - More a play in terms of the bullpen, has a team-high nine HR L30 and hits in 17 of last 18 games overall.
Hitters to target - Dodgers
- *Shohei Ohtani, LH (+280) - Team-high four HR off RHP last 30 days, with hits in five of last six games. Also performs better at home.
- Freddie Freeman, LH (+440) - Has a 52% FB rate and two HR off RHP over the last month, with hits in six of last eight.
- Mookie Betts, RH (+480) - Has a .282 average, three HR, and 47% FB rate against righties L30.
- Teoscar Hernandez, RH (+420) - Leads team with five overall HR over last month — four of which have come in the last four games.
- Will Smith, RH (+560) - 61% FB rate and three HR vs. righties L30 and also have five HR overall in that span.
Best betting value: Shohei Ohtani (+280 at FanDuel)
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