We have the second matchup of this three-game series with the AL East’s New York Yankees hosting the AL West’s Seattle Mariners. New York won the first meeting 7-2 in a game that featured yet another Aaron Judge homer, as the guy has officially left planet Earth this month.
Will Judge and the Yankees continue their torrid pace and strengthen their grip over the rest of the AL East, or can the up-and-coming Mariners play spoiler on the road?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Yankees on Tuesday, August 2.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees were unveiled as consensus favorites of -155 on Monday morning and were immediately bet up to -165. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 8.5 and remains at that number.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mariners vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 7/2/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get a no-sweat first bet (up to $1,000) at FanDuel! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Mariners vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Tuesday, August 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southwest, YES
Mariners vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Logan Gilbert (10-4, 2.78 ERA): Racking up strikeouts and wins while keeping his ERA low, Gilbert’s sophomore campaign continues to surpass expectations. Entering this contest in particularly good form, Gilbert boasts a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts. The most impressive aspect of this stretch? Two of those three outings came against the powerful Astros offense.
Jameson Taillon (10-2, 3.72 ERA): Over his last three starts, Taillon is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While it is fair to acknowledge that two of those three starts came against the lowly Royals and Orioles, Taillon rarely has a bad start regardless of opponent. New York won all three of those games, while the Under hit in just one of them.
Boasting a six-pitch arsenal, Taillon relies on his unpredictability to rack up strikeouts, though they mostly arrive via curveball (38.6 K%).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Jameson Taillon has reached at least five strikeouts in nine of his last 13 starts (69%). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees
Mariners vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Entering this contest in good form, New York has won four of its last five games. I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Jameson Taillon is slated to take the mound for the Yankees.
As mentioned earlier, Taillon’s confidence should be extremely high in this game due to his recent stretch of strong performances. New York has won in 10 of Taillon’s last 12 starts.
Additionally, Taillon has dominated the Mariners in the past. Focusing on his most recent start (July 2021) against Seattle, Taillon threw a gem, as he allowed just one earned run on four hits through seven innings pitched, with nine strikeouts, in a game that New York won 12-1.
Through 70 career plate appearances against Taillon, this current Mariners roster possesses a mere .194 BA, .387 SLG, and .284 wOBA, and following Taillon today is one of the league’s better bullpens.
Since July 1, the Yankees’ relief pitching ranks 11th in the league in ERA, 10th in WHIP, eighth in BA, second in SLG, third in wOBA, and 11th in hard-hit percentage. Many of New York’s best bullpen arms should be available for this game, including Clay Holmes, Lucas Luetge, and Albert Abreu.
Seattle may struggle to generate runs against this strong of a pitching staff. When facing right-handed pitchers, the Mariners rank just 26th in the league in BA, 23rd in SLG, 22nd in OPS, and 22nd in wOBA since the beginning of July. Due to this stretch of poor hitting, Seattle has lost seven of its last 11 games.
Prediction: Yankees -1.5 (+127 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
While the Yankees’ pitching staff should shut Seattle down, their bats may struggle to generate runs against right-hander Logan Gilbert. Coming off three straight great starts, I see no reason why Gilbert’s success will not continue in this game.
Yes, Judge and the Yankees’ offense have been on an absolute tear recently, but strong offenses have not been a problem for Gilbert all season.
We even saw this last year, particularly in Gilbert’s lone career start against the Yankees. In that game, Gilbert was nearly perfect as he allowed just one hit while surrendering zero runs through seven innings pitched.
Surprisingly enough, New York ranks just 22nd in the league in hard-hit percentage when facing right-handed pitchers since July 1. Like New York, Seattle also boasts a strong bullpen.
Since July 1, the Mariners’ relief pitching ranks sixth in the league in ERA, fifth in WHIP, fourth in BA, fifth in SLG, fourth in wOBA, and fifth in hard-hit percentage. Seattle’s best relievers should be available for this game, including Erik Swanson and Paul Sewald.
The Under is 5-0-1 over the last six meetings between these two clubs.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (+100 at Caesars)
Best bet
I am not confident enough to take New York’s run line as my best bet, because it winning by one while not covering is a very real possibility, and I do not want to lay that juice on the moneyline against Logan Gilbert. I am also not confident enough to take the Under, solely because of Aaron Judge.
The one play I am most confident in is Taillon to have yet another good outing. Reaching at least five strikeouts in nine of his last 13 starts, Taillon should be able to hit the mark once again.
With Seattle’s two best hitters, Julio Rodriguez and Ty France, expected to miss this game, Taillon should possess an even greater chance of success.
I mentioned earlier that Taillon’s curveball is a big weapon for his strikeouts, which should present a lot of trouble for a few hitters in this Seattle lineup, particularly Cal Raleigh (33.6 K%) and Eugenio Suarez (34.5 K%).
Pick: Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Mariners vs. Yankees picks, you could win $73.23 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
