Marlins vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Arraez Bullies Atlanta Around the Park

The Atlanta Braves will go for a four-game sweep of the Miami Marlins when the two National League East rivals face off in a matinee matchup at Truist Park on Thursday.

The Braves have bounced back from a four-game skid by taking care of a Marlins team that looks like, well, bottom feeders once again, losing five of their last seven. But Miami will have at one edge in this matchup, as hitting machine Luis Arraez digs in against a struggling Atlanta starter Kyle Wright. 

Can Arraez lead the Fish to a win as road underdogs? I break down this NL matchup and bring you my best bet in my MLB picks for the Marlins vs. Braves.

Marlins vs Braves odds

Marlins vs Braves predictions

Luis Arraez is a robot built in a lab. His one purpose? To hit baseballs.

The Miami Marlins second baseman is the most locked-in hitter in baseball. Arraez is hitting a MLB-leading .421, tallying 32 hits this season and is rarely striking out. He’ll have a great opportunity to keep that going against Atlanta Braves starter Kyle Wright.

The right hander has really struggled with his command early on, allowing nine earned runs on 15 hits and eight walks. That has resulted in an ugly 6.40 expected ERA and a .270 opponent expected batting average.

That doesn’t bode well against Arraez, who is raking even more against righties. Arraez owns a .433 average and a 1.100 OPS vs. righties this season. Now, Arraez’s total bases has been a popular play this season due to all those knocks. Today the Over 1.5 total bases sits at +120, but I think there is even more value in his hits prop.

While Arraez has 32 hits on the season, only seven have been for extra bases. Arraez has gone Over 1.5 total bases in 12 of his 20 starts and he has multihit games in 10 of those instances. 

What it comes down to is, when Arraez goes Over his total bases he does it with multi-hit games. That means the +190 on the Over 1.5 hits for Arraez is much more appealing.

My best bet: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits (+190)

Marlins vs Braves moneyline analysis

The Braves opened this National League East matchup as massive -200 favorites, but it’s the Fish who are seeing the early money with Atlanta coming down to -180. And while the Marlins at plus money may look tempting due to Kyle Wright’s struggles, I wouldn’t be so quick to back the Bottom Feeders here.

The Marlins counter Wright with Braxton Garrett. The former first-round pick has gotten off to a solid start this season, allowing just four earned runs in 16 innings pitched. That said, he’s been a little lucky. Garrett has allowed 18 hits this season and seemingly has gotten out of all of his jams.

Garrett’s ERA is a shiny 2.84, but his expected ERA of 5.07 along with the .318 opponent's expected batting average tells a different story. While he doesn’t walk many batters, he doesn’t strike out many either, with a 19.3% K-rate.

This afternoon presents his toughest matchup to date as well, with the Braves ranking second in batting average and third in OPS when facing southpaws this season. 

When it comes to the moneyline, I’m staying away. I don’t feel confident backing Atlanta at this price considering Wright’s struggles, but the odds aren’t good enough to take the underdog either with Garrett due for a bit of a regression.

Marlins vs Braves Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup hit the board at 8.5 and has been bet down to an even eight. At the new number, I may lean toward the Over as both starters could be in for tough matchups.

The Braves bats have woken up once again in this series, putting up 24 runs over the first three games, so they should do the heavy lifting here. If Miami can plate a couple of runs, (hopefully fueled by Arraez) this one should go Over.

Marlins vs Braves game info

Marlins vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Braxton Garrett (1-0, 2.84 ERA): Garrett is a former No. 7 overall pick and is looking to build off a year where he pitched to a 3.58 ERA over 17 starts. The lefty hasn't given up many runs but his 1.42 WHIP and .308 opponent batting average is concerning.

Kyle Wright (0-1, 5.93 ERA): It's been a bit of a shocking start for Wright following a season where he pitched to a 3.19 ERA over 30 starts and finished 10th in Cy Young voting. 

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Trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Marlins' last four road games and 9-1 in the Braves' last 10 at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Braves

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