Red Sox vs Yankees Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Devers Gets to Gil

Prop bet #1: Devers deals damage

Rafael Devers has been in fine form, collecting multiple hits in four of his last six games. He’s upped his OPS from .893 on June 22 to .943 in the process and hopes for continued success after going 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBI, and a steal in Saturday’s loss. 

The 27-year-old typically feasts against RHP, posting a .926 OPS since 2022. He’s been particularly effective this season with a 178 wRC+, .654 SLG, and .346 ISO against RHP. Those aren’t just great numbers, they’re legendary. 

Typically this would seem like a difficult matchup against Luis Gil, but those concerns are assuaged a bit concerning Devers’ superb numbers against RHP and the fact that Gil has been struggling lately. The rookie seems to have hit the proverbial wall, surrendering 16 earned runs in his last three starts (9 2/3 innings). 

Devers has typically found success against the New York Yankees. His 26 home runs against his rivals are more than any other opponent through the years, and his 14 home runs at Yankee Stadium trails only his 82 dingers at Fenway. 

The books have set Devers’ total bases prop at 1.5 with plus money on the Over. I consider that a bargain. He’s averaged 3.2 total bases across his last 10 games and has historically averaged 1.9 total bases in the Bronx.

Rafael Devers prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Gil-ty as charged

Luis Gil is having a tremendous season by all accounts, but he’s experienced turbulence lately. Will he get back on track with a vintage performance, or will he continue his slide with another messy outing? 

Rather than bet on an exact outcome, I’m targetting his outs recorded prop as I believe that takes into account a few different game scripts. The bookmakers have set this prop at 16.5. 

The 26-year-old has gone Under his outs recorded prop in five straight contests, so I’m betting on a sixth straight on Sunday. He recorded no more than 17 outs in each of his first five starts of the season, then had 18+ in seven straight, and has since gone for 17 or fewer in five straight. He’s a streaky player, and he’s on a downswing right now. 

Gil’s greatest weakness is his command. Out of 87 pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings, Gil ranks dead-last in Location+ (94). He’s issuing 4.8 walks per nine innings and ranks in just the seventh percentile in walk rate (12.9%). 

It’s difficult to pitch deep into ball games when you can’t command the zone. Boston has been making opposing pitchers work as just one of the last six starters they’ve faced has lasted more than 16 outs. 

Luis Gil prop: Under 16.5 outs (-120 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Rookie sensation

Rookie Ben Rice had a day to remember on Saturday, clubbing three home runs and knocking in seven RBIs to lead a 14-4 victory for his team. 

One interesting development is that Rice was placed atop the order as Aaron Boone looks for more production out of that spot as a potential antidote for his ailing team. Early returns are positive. 

While we can’t expect a repeat performance in his encore, there are a lot of things to like about Rice and there could be some value in the youngster’s props. He’s a promising bat and he’s acclimated to the majors well, and he could have a very productive stretch if he remains atop what is arguably the most dangerous lineup in the league. 

The Dartmouth product was destroying both Double-A pitching (151 wRC+, .401 wOBA) and Triple-A pitching (171 wRC+, .457 wOBA) before his call-up. Now that he’s punishing big-league hurlers as well with a 171 wRC+ and .411, it’s hard not to like his profile. 

He’s making fantastic contact quality with an 18.6% barrel rate, 46.5% launch angle sweet-spot percentage, and 91 mph average exit velocity. He’d be atop the leaderboards if he had enough at-bats to qualify. He doesn’t, and of course he only has a small sample of plate appearances, but the results are undeniably encouraging. 

The Boston Red Sox send out another right-handed starter in Kutter Crawford, so we should expect to see Rice in a prominent lineup spot. Hitting in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge is surely advantageous. 

Ben Rice prop: Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110 at DraftKings)