The first full weekend of baseball is in the books, and bettors are blessed with some afternoon ball on Monday. There are a lot of end-of-the-rotation guys throwing today, giving us a lot of betting spots to exploit.
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Monday, March 31.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for March 31
Holmes Over 4.5 hits allowed (+120 at Caesars)
Rasmussen Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100 at Caesars)
Francis Under 4.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars)
Today's SP best bets
Braves vs. Dodgers
The angle: Grant Holmes will get a longer leash than expected but will get knocked around by that elite LA lineup.
The move: Grant Holmes Over 4.5 hits allowed (+120 at Caesars)
Grant Holmes came out of the bullpen in his first appearance of the season on Thursday but will get the road start tonight vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
THE BAT projects a solid 84-pitch outing for the righty and that means lots of opportunities for hits. He projects to give up 4.85 hits, making anything at EV for this Over 4.5 hits allowed worth it. His Over 4.5 Ks is also showing a little value at +120 or better, but the hits allowed market is the best route for a winner vs. the Dodgers.
Holmes has been a hit-per-inning pitcher over his 70 big-league innings and does have some K potential. LA is hitting just .224 as a team but also saw some good arms in the Detroit series and is coming off a day of rest. It could be BP for the home side today, and I hope Holmes gets his 15 outs.
Pirates vs. Rays
The angle: Drew Rasmussen is a bullpen arm/opener who is transitioning to a rotation spot. He will not have a long leash.
The move: Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100 at Caesars)
This is an interesting game with both starters possibly not getting very deep.
Tampa Bay Rays righty Drew Rasmussen never went more than six outs over 16 appearances last year and was used as an opener in the games he did start. He might go a little longer today, but getting to 15 outs will be very tough to accomplish. This K prop is just too large for a guy who might go just 60 pitches.
In the spring, he did get up to 4+ innings but also struck out just three, as endurance has never been his forte and will certainly affect his ability to miss bats late. This line should be 40 points lower and will likely steam to the Under. It's a small sample, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have a league-average K%, so it might not even be that great of a strikeout matchup under ideal circumstances.
Nationals vs. Jays
The angle: The Nationals' young lineup is very K-prone.
The move: Bowden Francis Under 4.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars)
From August 7 to September 24 of last season, Bowden Francis struck out a batter per inning and posted a 1.53 ERA across nine starts. He allowed just 24 hits across 59 innings. He is stretched out and gets to face a young Washington Nationals lineup that is striking out 34.5% of the time. While that is an incredibly small sample, it's the highest rate in baseball.
Francis will be at home, which always helps, and when he is on, he can be unhittable. Add in Washington's swing-and-miss tendencies, and Francis could have a very tidy start.
I wanted his Over 4.5 Ks at -135, but just in case his leash isn't 90 pitches, the Under hits allowed prop has multiple paths for a winner. THE BAT is projecting 15.9 outs for the Toronto Blue Jays starter, who could be one of the team's best pitchers this year.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
