The Dallas Stars host the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday afternoon at the American Airlines Center. Oddsmakers list Dallas as a -305 favorite, with the total set at six goals.
I am optimistic about the underdog keeping this game close, as broken down in my Penguins vs. Stars predictions below.
Find out more in my NHL picks for April 5.
Penguins vs Stars prediction
My best bet: Penguins +1.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been on the wrong end of some poor puck luck over the past two months. That said, they’ve done a solid job generating and preventing high-danger scoring chances, and the puck is likely to start bouncing their way sooner rather than later.
During that stretch, Pittsburgh ranks in the top half of the league in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Meanwhile, the inverse is true for the Dallas Stars.
Despite poor underlying metrics, everything has been bouncing the Stars’ way. Their defense has particularly struggled to prevent high-danger scoring chances, ranking last in xGA/60 over the past two months.
As a result, the Penguins rank higher than Dallas in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) during that span. That leaves goaltending as the primary reason Dallas opened as a sizable favorite.
However, Tristan Jarry — who is expected to start for Pittsburgh — has fared well against the Stars. Over his past four starts against Dallas, Jarry boasts a .917 SV% and a 2.36 GAA.
The Penguins have also covered the +1.5 puck line in eight of their past 11 games.
Penguins vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
Penguins +1.5
Sidney Crosby anytime goal
Bryan Rust anytime goal
Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust both skate on Pittsburgh's top line and enter this matchup tied for second on the team in goals.
Crosby and Rust both scored in the Penguins’ recent 6-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, and I expect them to find the back of the net to help cover the +1.5 puck line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Penguins vs Stars odds
Penguins vs Stars live odds
Penguins vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (+100) | Dallas -1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +245 | Dallas -305
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-130) | Under 5.5 (+110)
Penguins vs Stars trend
Pittsburgh has covered +1.5 in seven of its past 10 games against Dallas. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Stars.
How to watch Penguins vs Stars
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Saturday, 4-5-2025 |
| Puck drop | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC, ESPN+ |
Penguins vs Stars latest injuries
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