The Atlanta Braves will look to further extend their lead in the NL East as they host the suddenly streaking New York Mets on Monday night.
Atlanta (80-43) has the best record in the majors and a commanding 13.5-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. The Mets (58-67) have virtually no shot at the postseason after trading away their best pitchers – and several other players – at the trade deadline, but have won six of their last eight games.
The Braves are recalling rookie starter Allan Winans for tonight’s game, giving him a second shot at New York this month. We’ll look at how that impacts MLB odds and Monday’s matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Braves on August 21.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves predictions
The New York Mets won’t be happy to see Allan Winans again after their experience with him earlier this month. In just his second career MLB start, Winans threw seven shutout innings against New York in the first game of a doubleheader on August 12. He allowed just four hits while striking out nine batters in that game.
The 27-year-old Winans has been excellent for Triple-A Gwinnett as well this year, going 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA. While his first start against New York came at the depth of the Mets’ struggles, and teams do tend to improve a bit the second time they get to see a new pitcher, we should expect Winans to find at least some success again on Monday.
That’s hardly the biggest edge the Atlanta Braves have tonight, either. Atlanta has the best offense in the majors, averaging a league-leading 5.81 runs per game. There’s no sign that this onslaught is coming to an end, either, as the Braves have scored an average of 7.11 runs per game over their last nine outings. Atlanta has won seven of those games, largely due to that offensive output.
The Braves will get to flex their muscles again on Monday night, as they face off against New York starter David Peterson. The Mets had hoped that 2022 was a breakthrough year for the young Peterson, but he’s one against struggled to make an impact in 2023. In 72.2 innings, the lefty has a 5.45 ERA. In one prior start against Atlanta this year, Peterson allowed four runs on five hits over just five innings of work, though that technically earned him a complete game in the rain-shortened contest.
Despite all the memes, the Mets are not an awful team, just an incredible disappointment. That’s why it’s not a huge shock that they’ve been able to put together a short run of success over the last couple weeks. But that ends tonight, as they’re no match for the best team in baseball, especially with Peterson on the mound.
There are a number of ways to bet on the Braves tonight, and they’re all good options. For my money, I want to get the best return possible by giving up some runs in a game that Atlanta should win easily. While it’s tempting to go wild on the alternate lines, I’m happy to stick with giving 1.5 runs on the run line, which provides us with solid odds tonight.
My best bet: Braves -1.5 (-105 at PointsBet)
Mets vs Braves same-game parlay
Braves -1.5
Under 10.5 runs
Allan Winans Over 4.5 strikeouts
We’ll start our same-game parlay for tonight’s game with my best bet. That means backing the Braves to win on the run line, giving 1.5 runs to a Mets team that shouldn’t be able to keep it close with Atlanta tonight.
Next, we’ll go with the Under at 10.5 runs. That’s a big number, and while sportsbooks may not have much confidence in Winans to repeat his performance from his first start against New York, I think he can put in another long, solid effort.
With that theme in mind, I’m also predicting that Winans is able to hit the Over on his strikeouts prop at 4.5. Last time out, Winans picked up nine strikeouts against the Mets, and he picked up five in just 4.1 innings in his only other MLB start. Predicting he can get to five again is a great way to close out this SGP.
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Mets vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Braves opened tonight’s game as a -204 favorite over the Mets. The consensus moneyline has pushed Atlanta to around -220, though there’s a lot of variance between sites. The best available line on the Braves is -205 as of noon on Monday, while you can find +185 on New York.
Atlanta has been the best team in baseball, and that’s been good enough to make bettors 11 units on the moneyline this year. On the other hand, no team has underperformed quite like the Mets, who have lost backers a devastating 26 units in 2023.
The Braves should win this game going away, and that makes Atlanta a good bet even at odds a bit longer than -200. However, as I pointed out above, I think there’s a better option here. Let’s take the Braves on the run line, getting almost even money while only needing them to beat the Mets by two runs to cash in.
The total on tonight’s game opened at a flat 10 runs. That number has since moved up to 10.5 runs at most sites. You can find -108 on the Under at 10.5, or get the Over at -103 on that same number.
The Atlanta offense has pushed the Braves above the number with some consistency, allowing the Over to go 66-55 in Braves games this year. The Mets have played lower-scoring games, with the Under putting up an impressive 67-51 mark when they play.
While it’s always a bit scary to bet against the Atlanta offense, I think this number is just far too high tonight. We’ve seen Winans work his magic against the Mets once already this month, so I’m not expecting New York to contribute much to the total. The Braves should tee off against Peterson, but not enough to justify a double-digit total. I’m leaning towards the Under.
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Trend to know
The Braves have gone 8-2 on the run line against the Mets this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Monday, August 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, BSSO |
Starting pitchers
David Peterson (3-7, 5.45 ERA): Now in his fourth season in the majors, Peterson is falling into a pattern of alternating good and bad seasons. Unfortunately, 2023 has been the latter, with the lefty giving up too many home runs and hits to go along with his persistent control problems. In his last start, Peterson gave up one run on three hits and six walks over just 3.2 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 15.
Allan Winans (1-0, 1.59 ERA): The Braves may not have a permanent roster spot for Winans just yet, but all signs are that the 28-year-old will be pitching somewhere in the majors next season. Winans has been strong in Triple-A this year, and has also been good in both of his MLB starts. He was especially impressive in his last appearance against the Mets, giving up no runs on four hits over seven innings on August 12.
