A terrific baseball slate is on tap tonight and we've sifted through the MLB odds for the best value in the player props market.
We have two players to go long tonight and one to go hitless, so let's dig in with my free MLB picks for Friday, June 28.
MLB props for June 28
- Siri Over 0.5 home runs (+600 at FanDuel)
- Mateo Under 0.5 hits (+102 at Caesars)
- Ohtani Over 0.5 home runs (+550 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 6-28 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Hey Siri, hit a dinger
Jose Siri sports the 30th-best isolated power against lefties, and the Tampa Bay Rays outfielder is well-suited to attack the pitching arsenal that will be thrown at him when he faces Washington Nationals southpaw Mitchell Parker.
The curveball makes up 25% of Parker's pitching arsenal, and this is a pitch that Siri destroys, boasting a hard-hit rate of nearly 65% against the offering. Parker has only given up one homer off that pitch this season, but with a hard-hit rate that's well below league average and a tailor-made matchup on tap for Siri, don't be surprised if it's two after tonight.
Jose Siri prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+600 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Silenced by Scherzer
Jorge Mateo has been awful against breaking balls this season. Most notable is the slider, where the Baltimore Orioles utility man is hitting .072, slugging .178, and striking out 20% of the time. That pitch was most effective for Max Scherzer in his season debut five days ago, as the Texas Rangers hurler struck out two and forced an overall 50% whiff rate against Kansas City.
That makes me feel good about fading Mateo's hits prop at plus money, especially considering Texas will look to get the three-time Cy Young winner deeper into games. Mateo has also been pinch-hit for eight times this season and has never recorded a hit against Scherzer, so I would play this up to -105.
Jorge Mateo prop: Under 0.5 hits (+102 at Caesars)
Prop bet #3: It's Shotime
The vitals are extremely promising for Shohei Ohtani when the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar graces the plate at Oracle Park tonight.
It will be a moderately warm evening in the Bay Area, with the wind blowing out and Ohtani facing a right-handed pitcher. Although San Francisco Giants starter Logan Webb remains an elite ground ball pitcher (ranking in the 98th percentile), Ohtani has the skills to overcome this, as he's put up a hard-hit rate of 68% against the sinker in 2024.
That's enough for me to take a shot at such a nice number against Webb, who has thrown that pitch over 35% of the time this season.
Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+550 at BetMGM)
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