Rangers vs Orioles Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: O's Won't Tee Off vs Heaney

Prop bet #1: Texas hold 'em

Left-handed starter Andrew Heaney’s numbers don’t look all that good on the surface. He’s 2-9 with a 4.17 ERA in 16 games (15 starts). However, his ERA has come down from 6.26 at the end of April to 4.47 at the end of May. He’s settling in as the season moves along.

Even with Heaney’s unsightly ERA, the southpaw has been consistent in limiting the damage. He’s allowed Over 3.5 earned runs in just two of 16 outings this season — and both of them came back in April. Since May 1, Heaney has allowed two or fewer ER in seven of 11 games, and exactly three ER in the other four.

Heaney has yet to start against the Orioles this year but made three starts against Baltimore last season. After an abhorrent performance in his first start of the year (2 2/3 innings, 7 ER) he held the O’s to one run through seven innings in May. He also went 3 2/3 innings with one run allowed in Game 1 of the ALDS.

We’re paying some juice here to take the Under 3.5 earned runs but it’s hit in 13 of 15 (86.66%) starts for Heaney this season. The O’s exploded for 11 runs on Thursday but have had their share of low-scoring games lately.

Andrew Heaney prop: Under 3.5 earned runs (-160 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Semien struggles

Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien has been struggling over the past few weeks. He’s just 5-for-54 (.093) in his last 13 games after an 0-for-5 day on Saturday. He’s seen his average drop from .265 to .237 in the process.

Semien is now 1-for-13 against the Orioles in this series and 1-for-22 in his last five games. It’s safe to say that he’s not making much of an impact with the bat.

There is some hesitation with the fact that two of Semien’s last five hits have been doubles, but the second baseman has even trended toward the Under 1.5 total bases all season long. He’s gone Under 1.5 TB in six straight games, 11 of his last 13, and 19 of his past 23 contests. On the season, Semien has had 2+ TB in only 38% of his games. 

I like the safer play of Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at around -140 as an option as well, if that’s something you’d prefer. Semien’s gone Under 2.5 H+R+RBI in 17 of his last 20 games and two-thirds of his games this season.

Marcus Semien prop: Under 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Henderson stays hot

While we’re fading one middle infielder, we’re backing another.

Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson is the reigning AL Rookie of the Year and could add an MVP Award to his mantle case in the not-so-distant future. He went 2-for-5 on Saturday to raise his average to .292 and his OPS to an even 1.000. The young shortstop picked up his 17th double yesterday to go along with his 26 home runs — two shy of last year’s total — and four triples to boot.

Henderson has better numbers against right-handed pitchers like most other left-handed batters, but the difference isn’t that pronounced. He’s batting .275 vs. LH (.297 vs. RH) with a .550 SLG and .967 OPS. Those are solid numbers for anyone, let alone a youngster in a lefty-on-lefty situation.

The shortstop has recorded 2+ TB in five of his last six games, seven of his last 10, and 14 of his last 20 contests. That latter 70% clip is a bit higher than his 55% for the season, but these odds of +135 imply a 42.55% chance of winning.

Back Henderson to keep swinging a hot bat on Sunday Night Baseball.

Gunnar Henderson prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at DraftKings)